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Markku Rummukainen. Foto.

Markku Rummukainen

Professor

Markku Rummukainen. Foto.

Emerging regional climate change signals for Europe under varying large-scale circulation conditions

Författare

  • Erik Kjellstrom
  • Peter Thejll
  • Markku Rummukainen
  • Jens H. Christensen
  • Fredrik Boberg
  • Ole B. Christensen
  • Cathrine Fox Maule

Summary, in English

A large ensemble of regional climate model projections was investigated regarding if and when they show an emergence of significant climate change signals in seasonal temperature and precipitation within Europe. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as simulated in the projections, was investigated. In most parts of Europe, the projections indicate robust emergence of temperature change in the first 2 decades of the 21st century, typically earlier for summer than for winter. For precipitation changes, signals generally emerge much later than for temperature. For Europe as a whole, the precipitation signals tend to emerge some 40 to 60 yr later than the temperature signals. In some sub-regions, robust signals for precipitation are not found within the studied period, i.e. until 2100. Some sub-regions, notably the Mediterranean area and Scandinavia, show different behaviour in some aspects compared to the ensemble-based results as a whole. NAO has some influence on the temperature change signals, which emerge earlier in winter for some models and regions if NAO is accounted for. For summer temperatures, the influence of NAO is less evident. Similarly, for precipitation, accounting for NAO leads to an earlier emergence in some regions and models. Here, we find an impact for both summer and winter.

Avdelning/ar

  • Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC)
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system

Publiceringsår

2013

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

103-119

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Climate Research

Volym

56

Avvikelse

2

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Inter-Research

Ämne

  • Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Nyckelord

  • Climate change
  • Emerging trends
  • Europe
  • Regional climate models
  • NAO

Aktiv

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 1616-1572