I am an Associate Professor of Environmental Science at Lund University. My research focuses on the quantification and communication of uncertainty in scientific assessments and how uncertainty can be considered in decision making, in particular in the management of environmental systems under varying strengths in knowledge.

Uncertainty and Evidence Lab (UnEviL)

My research group focuses on the management of uncertainty and evidence in risk assessment, evidence synthesis and decision analysis. We discuss the principles and methods on conceptual and actual problems and we are not limited to a specific application. 

Key interests

• Uncertainty in scientific assessments
• Decision making under uncertainty
• Subjective probability
• Bayesian analysis and modelling
• Ecologic-economic modelling

Selected applications 

• Ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes
• Invasive species 
• Chemical safety 
• Honey bee health 
• Litter 
• Species conservation

My CV (PDF, 184 kB, new tab)

Leadership

2020 – Member of LU Futura (representing the Natural Science Faculty)

2018 – President of the Swedish Society for Risk Sciences (Riskkollegiet)
www.riskkollegiet.nu

2017– Research group leader Uncertainty and Evidence Lab 
Uncertainty and Evidence Lab

2015–2017 President of the Nordic Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis  
www.sra.org

2016 BECC action group: Evidence relying on simulation models and expert judgment. 
About the project on portal.research.lu.se

2014–2018 Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence – Quality assurance in ecosystem service predictions (FORMAS project)

2015 STAKE Practices and barriers of stakeholder interaction – challenges for research projects 
About the study at becc.lu.se

2014 Quality in knowledge – BECC action group

Education and awards

I have a Master of Science in Mathematics with a major in Mathematical Statistics, Lund University 2003. My Master thesis "Analysis of forest field data with a spatial approach" was awarded Sparbanksstiftelsen Skåne Nova scholarship of 25,000 SEK 2004.

I also have a Master of Science in Forestry with a major in Forest Management, Swedish Agricultural and Forest University, 2000. My master thesis "Modelling spatial variability in low temperature at a landscape level" was awarded Arvid Lindman scholarship of 25,000 SEK in 2001.

2010 I defended my PhD thesis From data to decision – learning by probabilistic risk analysis of biological invasions. Prof Hugh Possingham was my opponent. 

Award in the images of risk competition at ESREL 2016 of my image "The probability of a unique event". 
Photo at evidence.blogg.lu.se

I received the Richard J. Burk Outstanding Service Award from the Society for Risk Analysis 2016. 

Appointed Docent in Environmental Science at Lund University in June 2017. The Swedish title Docent corresponds to Associate Professor in the US or Reader in the UK. 
My docenture lecture at evidence.blogg.lu.se

Current PhD students

Dmytro Perepolking (main supervisor), Ivette Raices-Cruz (main supervisor), Maria Blasi Romero, Per Gustavsson, Vladimir Stepanov (Liverpool University, UK)

Visiting PhD students

Indrani Govendor, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa – Oct 2016 to April 2017

Former PhD students

Jan Blanke, 2017

Sarfraz Iqbal 2013 Environmental modelling and uncertainty (main supervisor Feb 2012 – Feb 2013)

Postdocs

Niklas Vareman (2016–2017), Charlotte Baey (2016–2018), Jessica Knapp (2019-2020)

Current courses

Undergraduate

Introduction to biostatistics MASB11 Spring 2021

Applied ecotoxicology (lectures) spring 2021

Graduate

Sustainable Land Use Agenda2030 Spring 2021

Examples of previous courses

Risk, uncertainty and decision-making RUDM ClimBEco/FRAM/LUCRAM 2019 Oct–Nov 2019 
Interdisciplinarity in Environmental Research ClimBEco/CEC 2019, 2020
Bayesian analysis and decision theory BADT ClimBEco 2018

Graduate course in Risk, Uncertainty and Decision making, NAMV002, ClimBeco/LUCID, October–November 2016. 
Seventh school of the Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (SIPTA), Aug 29 – Sep 2, 2016, Durham, UK. 
Bayesian Analysis and Decision Theory NAMV001 – As a summer school August–September 2015. 

Environmental risk analysis at Lund University MVEC12 (Lectures and assignments). Teaching students about quantifying uncertainty.

Applied Ecotoxicology LU BIOR52 (Lecture and exercise)

Conservation Biology (Lecture and exercise)