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Ullrika Sahlin

I am a lecturer in ecologic-economic modelling at Lund University. My research focus on the quantification of uncertainty and how uncertainty is used in decision making and in particular the management of environmental systems under varying strenghts in knowledge.

Uncertainty and Evidence Lab (UnEviL)

This research group focus on the management of uncertainty and evidence in risk analysis, evidence synthesis, decision analysis and, never the least, predictive sciences. This include discussing and applying principles and methods for learning, forecasting and decision analysis under different strengths in knowledge. We seek to apply the principles and methods on conceptual and actual problems and we are not limited to a specific application. 

Key interests

  • Environmental decision making
  • Uncertainty in scientific assessments
  • Decision making under uncertainty
  • Bayesian analysis and its generalisation

Selected applications 

• Ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes • Invasive species • Chemical safety • Honey bee health• Litter • Species conservation

Current activity: Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge - participants of the annual running race Lundaloppet are encouraged to guess their running time. The aim of the challenge is to study how good people are in being uncertain and get data to use in outreach events. Are you running this year - take part here

I am interested in hosting postdocs or guest researchers on the topic uncertainty or ecological-economic modelling - contact me

We have now published android versions of the games about uncertainty on google app store. They are found by searching for UncertainGames. There are five English (Quiztimate, BeanGuesser, ProbabilityGuess, Probability Bee and FrequencyGuesser) and one Swedish game (Gisso).

The games are possible to download for windows and mac.


Quantifying uncertainty by precise and bounded probability. Berlin February 22nd

Uncertainty in scientific assessments South Africa Workshop Durban January

Quantifying uncertainty by probability. Lund October 10th. Stavanger November 7th


Work interacting with stakeholders

A report on data collection and analysis of winter loss in Sweden is finished as part of the project Samverkan för god bihälsa - link here soon.

The project Gaming for better decisions under uncertainty is finished. 

This is where you can download the risk analysis of signal crayfish report 

Pollinera Sverige - Swedish pollination network Independent expert in the MUST-B working group at EFSA • Risk analysis on the signal crayfish for the Swedish Water Agency • Past president of the Nordic Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis • Understanding and controlling litter by understanding thrown gum in urban areas (pilot) 

Work on promoting Bayesian methods in research - annual mini conference Bayes@Lund 

Visit my blog Environmental Evidence Synthesis


2018   President of the Swedish Society for Risk (Riskkollegiet)

2017 - Gamining for better decsions under uncertainty - Climate-KIC

2017 -  Research group Uncertainty and Evidence Lab

2015 - 2017 President of the Nordic Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis 

2016 BECC action group: Evidence relying on simulation models and expert judgment.

2014 - 2018 Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence - Quality assurance in ecosystem service predictions (FORMAS project)

2015 STAKE Practices and barriers of stakeholder interaction – challenges for research projects

2014 Quality in knowledge - BECC action group

2012 - 2013 Towards decision making under uncertainty as part of PLANFISH.

2012 QSAR-integrated hazard and risk assessment, workpackage leader EU-project CADASTER.


2016 and 2017 Matthias Troffaes, Durham University, UK

2015 John-Paul Gosling at University of Leeds, UK. 

As a postdoc I made the following visits: 

2012-2014 Postdoc in economic-ecological modelling at Lund university Centre of Environmental and Climate research in SAPES research environment and EU-project Liberation.

2012-2013 Prof Hugh Possingham and Environmental Decision Group at University of Queensland, Australia (three months) 

2010-2012 Linneaus University, Sweden. in the EU-project CADASTER on the quantification of uncertainty in QSARs for chemical regulation under REACH.

I also got inspiration from here: 

Terje Aven, University of Stavanger 

CSIRO, Hobart, Keith Hayes PhD, October – February 2006-07

Feb 2013 Terry Walsh at Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA) at University of Melbourne, Australia.

Upcoming conferences

Past conferences

Education and awards

I have a Master of Science in Mathematics with a major in Mathematical Statistics, Lund University 2003. My Master thesis "Analysis of forest field data with a spatial approach" was awarded Sparbanksstiftelsen Skåne Nova scholarship on 25 000 SEK 2004. I also have a Master of Science in Forestry with a major in Forest management, Swedish Agricultural and Forest University, 2000. My master thesis "Modelling spatial variability in low temperature at a landscape level" was awarded Arvid Lindman scholarship on 25 000 SEK in 2001.

2010 I defended my PhD thesis From data to decision - learning by probabilistic risk analysis of biological invasions. Prof Hugh Possingham was my opponent. 

Award in the images of risk competition at ESREL 2016 of my image "The probablity of a unique event".

I received the Richard J. Burk Outstanding Service Award from the Society for Risk Analysis 2016. 

Appointed Docent in Environmental Science at Lund university June 2017. The Swedish title Docent corresponds to Assciate Professor in the US or Reader in the UK. Here is a link to my docenture lecture.

Visiting PhD students

Indrani Govendor, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa - Oct 2016 to April 2017

Current PhD students

Ivette Raices-Cruz (main supervisor), Maria Blasi, Per Gustavsson 

Former PhD students

Jan Blanke, 2017

Sarfraz Iqbal 2013 Environmental modelling and uncertainty (main supervisor during Feb 2012- Feb 2013)

For master students

I supervise projects for master students from e.g. Environmental, Computer or Information Sciences, Mathematical Statistics or Risk Management.

Current courses

Graduate course in Risk, Uncertainty and Decision making, NAMV002, ClimBeco/LUCID, October-November 2016. NEXT PLANNED FOR 2019

Environmental risk assessment on the course Foundations for Risk Assessment and Management. LTH, Lund October 2016. (Lecture)

Seventh school of the Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (SIPTA), Aug 29 - Sep 2, 2016, Durham, UK.

Bayesian Analysis and Decision Theory NAMV001 - As a summer school August-September 2015. SECOND VERSION SPRING 2018 

Environmental risk analysis at Lund University MVEC12 (Lectures and assignments) TEACHING STUDENTS ABOUT QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY

Applied Ecotoxicology LU BIOR52 (Lectures)



Retrieved from Lund University's publications database



Retrieved from Lund University's publications database


Retrieved from Lund University's publications database

At the Uncertainty show
E-mail: ullrika [dot] sahlin [at] cec [dot] lu [dot] se

Senior lecturer

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research (CEC)

+46 46 222 89 69

+46 73 827 44 32


Ekologihuset, Sölvegatan 37, Lund


Read more on the blog

Guess your time in Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2019

18 April 2019
Länk till denna sida på svenska We are curious to know how good people are in being uncertain. To test this, we ask participants of the runn…

Gissa din tid i Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2019

18 April 2019
Link to this page in English Vi är nyfikna på hur bra människor är på att vara osäkra. För att testa detta frågar vi deltagare i Lundaloppet…

Program for the 6th version of Bayes@Lund is now online

7 April 2019
Bayes@Lund 2019 – a Mini-conference on Bayesian Methods at Lund University, 7th of May, 2019 You are welcome to participate in the sixth edi…

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, CEC

Sölvegatan 37
223 62 Lund, Sweden

Visiting address
The Ecology building, Sölvegatan 37, Lund