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Ullrika Sahlin

My research is directed towards the practical implementation of normative theories for decision making under uncertainty. I take inspiration from the management of environmental systems given the current state of knowledge (includig the lack thereof). 

Uncertainty and Evidence Lab (UnEviL)

This research group focus on the management of uncertainty and evidence in risk analysis, evidence synthesis, decision analysis and, never the least, predictive sciences. This include discussing and applying principles and methods for learning, forecasting and decision analysis under different strengths in knowledge. We seek to apply the principles and methods on conceptual and actual problems and we are not limited to a specific application. 

Key interests

  • Environmental decision making
  • Process-based modelling
  • Decision making under uncertainty
  • Bayesian analysis and its generalisation

Selected applications 

• Ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes • Invasive species • Chemical safety • System safety and reliability • Litter 

Registration to the course Bayesian Analysis and Decision Theory spring 2018 is now open. The course has three concentrated phycial meetings so it is suitable even for people not in Lund.  

I am together with Scott Ferson searching for a candidate for a PhD on big but bad data at the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty at the Univeristy of Liverpool. The call is here together with other PhD projects. Final date to apply is January 26th !

Work interacting with stakeholders

The project Gaming for better decisions under uncertainty is finished. 


This is where you can download the risk analysis of signal crayfish report 

Pollinera Sverige - Swedish pollination network Independent expert in the MUST-B working group at EFSA • Risk analysis on the signal crayfish for the Swedish Water Agency • Past president of the Nordic Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis • Understanding and controlling litter by understanding thrown gum in urban areas (pilot) • Samverkan för god bihälsa

Work on promoting Bayesian methods in research - annual mini conference Bayes@Lund 

Visit my blog Environmental Evidence Synthesis


2017 - Gamining for better decsions under uncertainty - Climate-KIC

2017 -  Research group Uncertainty and Evidence Lab

2015 - 2017 President of the Nordic Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis 

2016 BECC action group: Evidence relying on simulation models and expert judgment.

2014 - 2018 Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence - Quality assurance in ecosystem service predictions (FORMAS project)

2015 STAKE Practices and barriers of stakeholder interaction – challenges for research projects

2014 Quality in knowledge - BECC action group

2012 - 2013 Towards decision making under uncertainty as part of PLANFISH.

2012 QSAR-integrated hazard and risk assessment, workpackage leader EU-project CADASTER.


2016 and 2017 Matthias Troffaes, Durham University, UK

2015 John-Paul Gosling at University of Leeds, UK. 

As a postdoc I made the following visits: 

2012-2014 Postdoc in economic-ecological modelling at Lund university Centre of Environmental and Climate research in SAPES research environment and EU-project Liberation.

2012-2013 Prof Hugh Possingham and Environmental Decision Group at University of Queensland, Australia (three months) 

2010-2012 Linneaus University, Sweden. in the EU-project CADASTER on the quantification of uncertainty in QSARs for chemical regulation under REACH.

I also got inspiration from here: 

Terje Aven, University of Stavanger 

CSIRO, Hobart, Keith Hayes PhD, October – February 2006-07

Feb 2013 Terry Walsh at Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA) at University of Melbourne, Australia.

Upcoming conferences

Past conferences

Education and awards

I have a Master of Science in Mathematics with a major in Mathematical Statistics, Lund University 2003. My Master thesis "Analysis of forest field data with a spatial approach" was awarded Sparbanksstiftelsen Skåne Nova scholarship on 25 000 SEK 2004. I also have a Master of Science in Forestry with a major in Forest management, Swedish Agricultural and Forest University, 2000. My master thesis "Modelling spatial variability in low temperature at a landscape level" was awarded Arvid Lindman scholarship on 25 000 SEK in 2001.

2010 I defended my PhD thesis From data to decision - learning by probabilistic risk analysis of biological invasions. Prof Hugh Possingham was my opponent. 

Award in the images of risk competition at ESREL 2016 of my image "The probablity of a unique event".

I received the Richard J. Burk Outstanding Service Award from the Society for Risk Analysis 2016. 

Appointed Docent in Environmental Science at Lund university June 2017. The Swedish title Docent corresponds to Assciate Professor in the US or Reader in the UK. Here is a link to my docenture lecture.

Visiting PhD students

Indrani Govendor, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa - Oct 2016 to April 2017

Current PhD students

Jan Blanke, Maria Blasi, Ivette Raices-Cruz (main supervisor)

Former PhD students

Sarfraz Iqbal 2013 Environmental modelling and uncertainty (main supervisor during Feb 2012- Feb 2013)

For master students

I supervise projects for master students from e.g. Environmental, Computer or Information Sciences, Mathematical Statistics or Risk Management.

Current courses

Graduate course in Risk, Uncertainty and Decision making, NAMV002, ClimBeco/LUCID, October-November 2016. NEXT PLANNED FOR FALL 2018

Environmental risk assessment on the course Foundations for Risk Assessment and Management. LTH, Lund October 2016. (Lecture)

Seventh school of the Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (SIPTA), Aug 29 - Sep 2, 2016, Durham, UK.

Bayesian Analysis and Decision Theory NAMV001 - As a summer school August-September 2015. SECOND VERSION SPRING 2018 

Environmental risk analysis at Lund University MVEC12 (Lectures and assignments) TEACHING STUDENTS ABOUT QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY

Applied Ecotoxicology LU BIOR52 (Lectures)



Retrieved from Lund University's publications database



Retrieved from Lund University's publications database


Retrieved from Lund University's publications database

Ullrika Sahlin in Lundagård
E-mail: ullrika [dot] sahlin [at] cec [dot] lu [dot] se


Centre for Environmental and Climate Research (CEC)

+46 46 222 89 69

+46 73 827 44 32



Read more on the blog

Working from home

6 March 2018
We are approaching the time of the year to writing applications for the Swedish research councils VR and FORMAS. We all have our tricks to g…

Reflections on stakeholder interaction

29 January 2018
Today I gave a talk at the CEC Fellows meeting on Lessons learnt from interacting with stakeholders. I shared reflections on three interacti…

Master thesis: Can drones improve detection and treatment of potato late blight?

23 January 2018
Early detection and recommendation of higher precision in treatment of late blight in potato crops by using drone photos is the title of a M…

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, CEC

Sölvegatan 37
223 62 Lund, Sweden

Visiting address
The Ecology building, Sölvegatan 37, Lund