I am an Associate Professor of Environmental Science at Lund University. I do research on the quantification and communication of uncertainty in scientific assessments and how uncertainty can be considered in decision making, in particular in the context of management of environmental systems under varying strengths in knowledge.

A PhD position on quantitative biodiversity modelling is now open. Read more and apply here

Uncertainty and Evidence Lab (UnEviL)

My research group focuses on the management of uncertainty and evidence in scientific assessment (risk assessment combined with evidence synthesis) and decision analysis. We discuss the principles and methods on conceptual and actual problems and we are not limited to a specific application. 

Key interests

• Uncertainty in scientific assessment
• Decision making under uncertainty
• Subjective probability and beyond
• New perspectives on Bayesian inference and modeling
• Biodiversity and ecologic-economic modeling
• Models for assessing chemical safety

Selected applications 

• Ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes
• Species conservation
• Invasive species 
• Food safety
• Chemical safety 
• Honey bee health 

Leadership

2015–2017, 2021 -  President of the Nordic Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis  
www.sra.org

2021 Member of LU Futura (representing the Natural Science Faculty)

2018 – 2021 President of the Swedish Society for Risk Sciences (Riskkollegiet)
www.riskkollegiet.nu

2017– Research group leader Uncertainty and Evidence Lab 
Uncertainty and Evidence Lab

2016 BECC action group: Evidence relying on simulation models and expert judgment. 
About the project on portal.research.lu.se

2014–2018 Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence – Quality assurance in ecosystem service predictions (FORMAS project)

2015 STAKE Practices and barriers of stakeholder interaction – challenges for research projects 
About the study at becc.lu.se

2014 Quality in knowledge – BECC action group

Education and awards

I have a Master of Science in Mathematics with a major in Mathematical Statistics, Lund University 2003. My Master thesis "Analysis of forest field data with a spatial approach" was awarded Sparbanksstiftelsen Skåne Nova scholarship of 25,000 SEK 2004.

I also have a Master of Science in Forestry with a major in Forest Management, Swedish Agricultural and Forest University, 2000. My master thesis "Modelling spatial variability in low temperature at a landscape level" was awarded Arvid Lindman scholarship of 25,000 SEK in 2001.

2010 I defended my PhD thesis From data to decision – learning by probabilistic risk analysis of biological invasions. Prof Hugh Possingham was my opponent. 

Award in the images of risk competition at ESREL 2016 of my image "The probability of a unique event". 
Photo at evidence.blogg.lu.se

I received the Richard J. Burk Outstanding Service Award from the Society for Risk Analysis 2016. 

Appointed Docent in Environmental Science at Lund University in June 2017.

Current PhD students

Dmytro Perepolkin (main supervisor)

Visiting PhD students

Indrani Govender, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa – Oct 2016 to April 2017

Former PhD students

Per Gustavsson, 2022

Ivette Raices-Cruz, 2021 (main supervisor)

Maria Blasi Romero, 2021

Jan Blanke, 2017

Sarfraz Iqbal, 2013 (main supervisor 2012 - 2013)

Postdocs

Niklas Vareman (2016–2017), Charlotte Baey (2016–2018), Jessica Knapp (2019-2020), Charlie Nicholson (2021-)

Current courses

Undergraduate

Introduction to Biostatistics MASB11 Spring 2023

Risk Analysis in Environment, Nature and Health Fall 2023

Graduate

Risk, Uncertainty and Decision making Fall 2023

Bayesian Analysis and Decision Theory Spring 2022