I am an Associate Professor of Environmental Science at Lund University. I do research on the quantification and communication of uncertainty in scientific assessments and how uncertainty can be considered in decision making, in particular in the context of management of environmental systems under varying strengths in knowledge.
A PhD position on quantitative biodiversity modelling is now open. Read more and apply here
Uncertainty and Evidence Lab (UnEviL)
My research group focuses on the management of uncertainty and evidence in scientific assessment (risk assessment combined with evidence synthesis) and decision analysis. We discuss the principles and methods on conceptual and actual problems and we are not limited to a specific application.
- Uncertainty in scientific assessment
- Decision making under uncertainty
- Subjective probability and beyond
- New perspectives on Bayesian inference and modeling
- Biodiversity and ecologic-economic modeling
- Models for assessing chemical safety
- Ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes
- Species conservation
- Invasive species
- Food safety
- Chemical safety
- Honey bee health
2015–2017, 2021 - President of the Nordic Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis
2021 Member of LU Futura (representing the Natural Science Faculty)
2018 – 2021 President of the Swedish Society for Risk Sciences (Riskkollegiet)
2017– Research group leader Uncertainty and Evidence Lab
Uncertainty and Evidence Lab
2016 BECC action group: Evidence relying on simulation models and expert judgment.
About the project on portal.research.lu.se
2014–2018 Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence – Quality assurance in ecosystem service predictions (FORMAS project)
2015 STAKE Practices and barriers of stakeholder interaction – challenges for research projects
About the study at becc.lu.se
2014 Quality in knowledge – BECC action group
Education and awards
I have a Master of Science in Mathematics with a major in Mathematical Statistics, Lund University 2003. My Master thesis "Analysis of forest field data with a spatial approach" was awarded Sparbanksstiftelsen Skåne Nova scholarship of 25,000 SEK 2004.
I also have a Master of Science in Forestry with a major in Forest Management, Swedish Agricultural and Forest University, 2000. My master thesis "Modelling spatial variability in low temperature at a landscape level" was awarded Arvid Lindman scholarship of 25,000 SEK in 2001.
2010 I defended my PhD thesis From data to decision – learning by probabilistic risk analysis of biological invasions. Prof Hugh Possingham was my opponent.
Award in the images of risk competition at ESREL 2016 of my image "The probability of a unique event".
Photo at evidence.blogg.lu.se
I received the Richard J. Burk Outstanding Service Award from the Society for Risk Analysis 2016.
Appointed Docent in Environmental Science at Lund University in June 2017.
Current PhD students
Dmytro Perepolkin (main supervisor)
Visiting PhD students
Indrani Govender, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa – Oct 2016 to April 2017
Former PhD students
Per Gustavsson, 2022
Ivette Raices-Cruz, 2021 (main supervisor)
Maria Blasi Romero, 2021
Jan Blanke, 2017
Sarfraz Iqbal, 2013 (main supervisor 2012 - 2013)
Niklas Vareman (2016–2017), Charlotte Baey (2016–2018), Jessica Knapp (2019-2020), Charlie Nicholson (2021-)
Introduction to Biostatistics MASB11 Spring 2023
Risk Analysis in Environment, Nature and Health Fall 2023
Risk, Uncertainty and Decision making Fall 2023
Bayesian Analysis and Decision Theory Spring 2022
Displaying of publications. Sorted by year, then title.
Calibration of a bumble bee foraging model using Approximate Bayesian ComputationCharlotte Baey, Henrik G. Smith, Maj Rundlöf, Ola Olsson, Yann Clough, et al.
(2023) Ecological Modelling, 477
Biologisk mångfald och betydelsen av skyddade områden : Utvärdering och indikatorer i ett landskapsperspektivMartin Stjernman, Malin Tälle, Thomas Ranius, Ullrika Sahlin, Erik Öckinger, et al.
(2023) Rapport / Naturvårdsverket
Iterative importance sampling with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in robust Bayesian analysisIvette Raices Cruz, Johan Lindström, Matthias C.M. Troffaes, Ullrika Sahlin
(2022) Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 176
Transcriptional Responses as Biomarkers of General Toxicity : A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis on Metal-Exposed BivalvesGustaf M O Ekelund Ugge, Ullrika Sahlin, Annie Jonsson, Olof Berglund
(2022) Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry
Pollinators, pests and yield—Multiple trade-offs from insecticide use in a mass-flowering cropJessica L. Knapp, Adam Bates, Ove Jonsson, Björn Klatt, Theresia Krausl, et al.
(2022) Journal of Applied Ecology, 59 p.2419-2429
A robust Bayesian bias-adjusted random effects model for consideration of uncertainty about bias terms in evidence synthesisIvette Raices Cruz, Matthias C.M. Troffaes, Johan Lindström, Ullrika Sahlin
(2022) Statistics in Medicine, 41 p.3365-3379
A model of wild bee populations accounting for spatial heterogeneity and climate-induced temporal variability of food resources at the landscape levelMaria Blasi, Yann Clough, Anna Maria Jönsson, Ullrika Sahlin
(2022) Ecology and Evolution, 12
Bayesian Network Applications for Sustainable Holistic Water Resources Management : Modeling Opportunities for South AfricaIndrani Hazel Govender, Ullrika Sahlin, Gordon C. O'Brien
(2022) Risk Analysis, 42 p.1346-1364
A suggestion for the quantification of precise and bounded probability to quantify epistemic uncertainty in scientific assessmentsIvette Raices Cruz, Matthias C.M. Troffaes, Ullrika Sahlin
(2022) Risk Analysis, 42 p.239-253
Utmaningar och möjligheterKatarina Hedlund, Marianne Hall, Peter Olsson, Ullrika Sahlin, Maria Ingimarsdottir, et al.
(2022) CEC Rapport , p.48-60
Hybrid elicitation and indirect Bayesian inference with quantile-parametrized likelihoodDmytro Perepolkin, Benjamin Goodrich, Ullrika Sahlin
The tenets of indirect inference in Bayesian modelsDmytro Perepolkin, Benjamin Goodrich, Ullrika Sahlin
Correlates of intended COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across time and countries : Results from a series of cross-sectional surveysJohn R. Kerr, Claudia R. Schneider, Gabriel Recchia, Sarah Dryhurst, Ullrika Sahlin, et al.
(2021) BMJ Open, 11
“This Is What We Don't Know” : Treating Epistemic Uncertainty in Bayesian Networks for Risk AssessmentUllrika Sahlin, Inari Helle, Dmytro Perepolkin
(2021) Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 17 p.221-232
Robust Decision Analysis under Severe Uncertainty and Ambiguous Tradeoffs : An Invasive Species Case StudyUllrika Sahlin, Matthias C.M. Troffaes, Lennart Edsman
(2021) Risk Analysis, 41 p.2140-2153
Impacts of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy “Greening” Reform on Agricultural Development, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem ServicesJordan Hristov, Yann Clough, Ullrika Sahlin, Henrik G. Smith, Martin Stjernman, et al.
(2020) Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 42 p.716-738
Utveckling och test av index för biologisk mångfald i ängs- och betesmarkerUllrika Sahlin, Martin Stjernman, Fabian Roger, Torbjörn Tyler, Ola Olsson, et al.
Biologiska hot mot humlorEva Forsgren, Jenny Henriksson, Lina Herbertsson, Ingrid Karlsson, Joachim R. de Miranda, et al.
Researchers’ approaches to stakeholders : Interaction or transfer of knowledge?Åsa Knaggård, Daniel Slunge, Anders Ekbom, Maria Göthberg, Ullrika Sahlin
(2019) Environmental Science and Policy, 97 p.25-35
Estimating effects of arable land use intensity on farmland birds using joint species modelingMartin Stjernman, Ullrika Sahlin, Ola Olsson, Henrik G. Smith
(2019) Ecological Applications, 29
Marine protected areas modulate habitat suitability of the invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) in the Baltic SeaMark Holmes, Jonne Kotta, Anders Persson, Ullrika Sahlin
(2019) Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 229
The potential to use QSAR to populate ecotoxicity characterisation factors for simplified LCIA and chemical prioritisationHanna Holmquist, Jenny Lexén, Magnus Rahmberg, Ullrika Sahlin, Julia Grönholdt Palm, et al.
(2018) International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 23 p.2208-2216
Implications of accounting for management intensity on carbon and nitrogen balances of European grasslandsJan Blanke, Niklas Boke-Olén, Stefan Olin, Jinfeng Chang, Ullrika Sahlin, et al.
(2018) PLoS ONE, 13
An evaluation of analyses and data collection of winter loss in honey bees in SwedenUllrika Sahlin, Björn Klatt
(2018) CEC rapport
A model to account for data dependency when estimating floral cover in different land use types over a seasonCharlotte Baey, Ullrika Sahlin, Yann Clough, Henrik G. Smith
(2017) Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 24 p.505-527
Riskanalys av signalkräfta i Sverige : CEC Rapport Nr 04Ullrika Sahlin, Lennart Edsman, Patrik Bohman
Differences in the strengths of evidence matters in risk–risk trade-offsUllrika Sahlin, Maj Rundlöf
(2017) Journal of Risk Research, 20 p.988-994
A note on EFSA’s ongoing efforts to increase transparency of uncertainty in scientific opinionsUllrika Sahlin, Matthias C.M. Troffaes
(2017) Journal of Risk Research , p.1-8
Pollinator population size and pollination ecosystem service responses to enhancing floral and nesting resourcesJohanna Häussler, Ullrika Sahlin, Charlotte Baey, Henrik G. Smith, Yann Clough
(2017) Ecology and Evolution, 7 p.1898-1908
Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leachingJan Hendrik Blanke, Stefan Olin, Julia Stürck, Ullrika Sahlin, Mats Lindeskog, et al.
(2017) Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 239 p.385-398
Small data and conflicting informationU. Sahlin
(2017) Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice - Proceedings of the 26th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2016 , p.51-51
Stakeholder Interaction in Research Processes : A Guide for Researchers and Research GroupsDaniel Slunge, Olof Drakenberg, Anders Ekbom, Åsa Knaggård, Ullrika Sahlin
Bayesian Evidence Synthesis and the quantification of uncertainty in a Monte Carlo simulationUllrika Sahlin, Yf Jiang
(2016) Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 230 p.445-456
Mot en evidensbaserad CAPJuliana Dänhardt, Henrik G. Smith, Mark V. Brady, Ullrika Sahlin
Assessment of uncertainty in chemical models by Bayesian probabilities: Why, when, how?Ullrika Sahlin
(2015) Journal of Computer-Aided Molecular Design, 29 p.583-594
Invasive plant species in the Swedish flora: developing criteria and definitions, and assessing the invasiveness of individual taxaTorbjörn Tyler, Thomas Karlsson, Per Milberg, Ullrika Sahlin, Sebastian Sundberg
(2015) Nordic Journal of Botany, 33 p.300-317
What type of uncertainty is robustness referring to in Information Gap Decision Theory?U. Sahlin
(2015) Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems - Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015 , p.2797-2804
Evaluating the impact of climate change on the risk assessment of Nuclear Power PlantsU. Sahlin, F. Di Maio, M. Vagnoli, E. Zio
(2015) Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems - Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015 , p.2613-2621
Applicability Domain Dependent Predictive Uncertainty in QSAR RegressionsUllrika Sahlin, N. Jeliazkova, T. Oberg
(2014) Molecular Informatics, 33 p.26-35
Prognosverktyget Farmland Bird Index : tillämpning och vidareutvecklingMartin Stjernman, Åke Lindström, Ullrika Sahlin, Martin Green, Henrik G. Smith
Modelling spatial relationships between ecosystem services and agricultural production in an agent-based modelChristoph Sahrbacher, Mark Brady, Yann Clough, Changxing Dong, Ullrika Sahlin, et al.
(2014) , p.1311-1318
Understanding quantitative structure-property relationships uncertainty in environmental fate modelingM. Sarfraz Iqbal, Laura Golsteijn, Tomas Oberg, Ullrika Sahlin, Ester Papa, et al.
(2013) Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 32 p.1069-1076
The quality of the outdoor environment influences children's health. -A cross-sectional study of preschools.Margareta Söderström, Cecilia Boldemann, Ullrika Sahlin, Fredrika Mårtensson, Anders Raustorp, et al.
(2013) Acta paediatrica, 102 p.83-91
Uncertainty in QSAR predictions.Ullrika Sahlin
(2013) ATLA: Alternatives To Laboratory Animals, 41 p.111-125
Arguments for considering uncertainty in QSAR predictions in hazard and risk assessments.Ullrika Sahlin, Laura Golsteijn, M Sarfraz Iqbal, Willie Peijnenburg
(2013) ATLA: Alternatives To Laboratory Animals, 41 p.91-110
PLS-Optimal: A Stepwise D-Optimal Design Based on Latent VariablesStefan Brandmaier, Ullrika Sahlin, Igor V. Tetko, Tomas Oberg
(2012) Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling, 52 p.975-983
Benefits of biofuels in Sweden: A probabilistic re-assessment of the index of new cars' climate impactNils Lubbe, Ullrika Sahlin
(2012) Applied Energy, 92 p.473-479
A benefit analysis of screening for invasive species - base-rate uncertainty and the value of informationUllrika Sahlin, Tobias Rydén, Cecilia D. Nyberg, Henrik Smith
(2011) Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2 p.500-508
A Risk Assessment Perspective of Current Practice in Characterizing Uncertainties in QSAR Regression PredictionsUllrika Sahlin, Monika Filipsson, Tomas Oberg
(2011) Molecular Informatics, 30 p.551-564
Time to establishment success for introduced signal crayfish in Sweden - a statistical evaluation when success is partially knownUllrika Sahlin, Henrik Smith, Lennart Edsman, Göran Bengtsson
(2010) Journal of Applied Ecology, 47 p.1044-1052
From data to decision - learning by probabilistic risk analysis of biological invasionsUllrika Sahlin
DAISIE - och 100 värstingarMora Aronsson, Cecilia Nyberg, Ullrika Sahlin
(2008) Fauna och Flora: populär tidskrift för biologi, 103
Read more on evidence.blogg.lu.se
Säkra beslut i en osäker världDen 17 maj kommer Ullrika medverka i en panel på detta tema på Formas Agenda2030 konferens i Stockholm.
PhD position on quantitative biodiversity modellingAre you interested in modelling biodiversity to inform decision-making? Would you like to learn more about machine learn...
Bayes@Lund2023 ProgramDear fellow Bayesians! Registration for the upcoming Bayes@Lund 2023 is now open! The purpose of Bayes@Lund is to bring ...
- SETAC Copenhagen May 2022 - we have a session about Expert Knowledge Elicitation
- Nordic chapter Bergen 2022
- SRA US ?
- NBBC21 June 2021
- Society for Risk Analysis US 2020
- SETAC North America 2020
- Nordic chapter Risk Conference Kaunas November 5-6 2020
- SETAC Dublin 2020
- Nordic Chapter Risk Conference Copenhagen Nov 7-8
- ESREL2019 Hannover
- RISKUT 2019 - a conference about teaching risk (organiser)
- Computer Aided Drug Design (CADD) GORDON research conference Vermont 2019 - I gave a talk about uncertainty in individual predictions
- Society for Imprecise Probability SIPTA July Belgium
- Bayes@Lund2019 7 May (organiser)
- SETAC 2019 - Helsinki
- Joint EFSA/BfR International Conference on Uncertainty in Risk Analysis Feb 21-22 2019
- SRA Nordic chapter Stavanger Nov 8-9 - I gave a tutorial here
- EFSA Conference Sept 18-21
- SRA Europe Östersund - June 2018
- Bayes@2018 - April 12th 2018
- CEE in Paris April
- SRA Nordic chapter conference Finland Nov 2-3
- BayesDays at Liverpool (I will give a tutorial on Quantifying uncertainty using data and experts see program)
- SRA Europe Lissbon, Portugal 19-21 June
- The Cambridge Risk and Uncertainty (RUC) Conference June 12-14th
- Bayes@Lund2017 - for the 4th time on April 19th and 20th Twitter #bayeslund17
- The Annual meeting of the Swedish Professional Beekepers, Nyköping 2017
- SRA, San Diego, USA, December 2016 - uncertainty according to EFSA & what is robustness to uncertainty
- ESREL Glasgow, UK, 25-29 September 2016 - paper on small data and conflicting information
- SRA Nordic, Göteborg, Sweden, 14-15 November 2016 - the new SRA glossary
- First International Conference of the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence, Stockholm, Sweden, 25-27th August, 2016
- SRA Europe Bath, UK, 20-22nd June, 2016 - presentation on small data and statistics
- Bayes@Lund2016 Feb 5th, Lund, Sweden. - what do we mean by evidence really?
- SRA Nordic chapter conference Lund 16 - 17 November
- ESREL 2015 7-10 September 2015
- WPMSIIP 8th Workshop on Principles and Methods of Statistical Inference with Interval Probability, Munich Sept 5th 2015.
- SETAC Europe 25th Annual Meeting in Barcelona, Spain, 3 - 7 May 2015, Julia held an excellent presenation of what we call Information Quality Impact Analysis
- The European Climate Change Adaptation Conference (ECCA) 2015 12-14 May. Poster “Who decides the treatment of knowledge-based uncertainty – decision makers, assessors or the epistemic situation?”
- SRA Europe Maastricht 15-17 June 2015 - The Nordic Chapter under SRA Europe is now up an running.
Workshops - Sahlin
Bayes@Lund Fall 2022 seminar series
2021 Annual online meeting of Society for Risk Analysis Europe Nordic Chapter- Comparative research in the Baltic-Nordic region
The Need for Social Science in Radon Risk Communication April 2021, Pufendorf seminar
Uncertainty analysis in predictive assessments Nov 2020
Evidence synthesis Nov 2019
BayesDays Liverpool October 21-22 2019
Quantifying uncertainty by precise and bounded probability. Liverpool January 2019, Berlin February 22nd 2019
Uncertainty in scientific assessments South Africa Workshop Durban January 2019
Quantifying uncertainty by probability. Lund October 10th.Stavanger November 7th 2018
Stakeholders - Sahlin
Work interacting with stakeholders
The European Food Safety Authority - member of the cross cutting working group on uncertainty (from nov 2019)
The Swedish Board of Agriculture - Indices for biodiversity in grasslands
A report on data collection and analysis of winter loss in Sweden is finished as part of the project Samverkan för god bihälsa.
The project Gaming for better decisions under uncertainty is finished.
This is where you can download the risk analysis of signal crayfish report
Pollinera Sverige - Swedish pollination network
Independent expert in the MUST-B working group at EFSA
Risk analysis on the signal crayfish for the Swedish Water Agency
The Nordic Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis
Work on promoting Bayesian methods in research - annual mini conference Bayes@Lund