I am an Associate Professor and Senior Lecturer in Environmental Science at Lund University. I do interdisciplinary research and teaching in Environmental as well as in Computational Science.
My research group focuses on the management of uncertainty and evidence in scientific assessment and decision analysis. We aim to characterise scientific uncertainty expressed in a quantitative way. We discuss principles and methods on conceptual and actual problems and we are not limited to a specific application. We use methods such as Expert Knoweldge Elicitation, Bayesian modelling, Bias adjustment modelling and Robust Bayesian analysis.
Contact me if you are interested in working in my group with principles and methods for scientific uncertainty quantification. My current applications are human health risk assessment and biodiversity assessment, but I am open for other topics.
Key interests
- Uncertainty in scientific assessment
- Decision making under uncertainty
- Subjective probability and beyond
- New perspectives on Bayesian inference and modeling
- Expert elicitation
- Biodiversity impact assessment
- Human and environmental risk assessment
- Management of Invasive Alien Species
Research visits
IAS Fellow at Durham University, UK, Jan-March 2025
Helsinki Collegium for Advanced Studies (HCAS) Nov 2025
PhD students
Harriet Arnberg (ongoing, co-supervisor)
Carlos Munoz (main supervisor)
Indrani Govender, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa – Visiting Oct 2016 to April 2017
Dmytro Perepolkin, 2024 (main supervisor)
Per Gustavsson, 2022
Ivette Raices-Cruz, 2021 (main supervisor)
Maria Blasi Romero, 2021
Jan Blanke, 2017
Sarfraz Iqbal, 2013 (main supervisor 2012 - 2013)
Postdocs
Zheng Zhou (2023 - 2026)
Niklas Vareman (2016–2017), Charlotte Baey (2016–2018), Jessica Knapp (2019-2020), Charlie Nicholson (2021-2023)
Current courses
Undergraduate
Risk Assessment in Environment and Public Health MVEN10
Introduction to Biostatistics MASB11/Statistics - Basic course for Applied Computational Science MASB21
Statistical and Mathematical Uncertainty Analysis VRSF20
Reproducible data science and statistical learning BERN02
Graduate
Bayesian Analysis and Decision Theory (3rd iteration 2026)
Risk, Uncertainty and Decision making (last time 2024)
Outside academia
Courses in Expert Knowledge Elicitation and Uncertainty Analysis for the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)
Publications
Displaying of publications. Sorted by year, then title.
A Method to Calibrate Chemical-Agnostic Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathways on Multiple Chemical Data
Zheng Zhou, Ullrika Sahlin
(2026) Chemical Research in Toxicology, 39 p.852-861
ArticleInterdisciplinary risks–a delicate balance between trust and critical review
Ullrika Sahlin, Henrik Thorén
(2025) Journal of Risk Research, 28 p.197-202
Debate/Note/EditorialThe mortality-fertility relationship from the economic demography perspective
Raouf Boucekkine, Marwân-al-Qays Bousmah, Ullrika Sahlin
(2025) Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 48
Debate/Note/EditorialA robust Bayesian model to quantify and adjust for study quality and conflict of interest in meta-analyses
Matthias C.M. Troffaes, Lorenzo Casini, Jürgen Landes, Ullrika Sahlin
(2025) Proceedings of machine learning research, 290 p.273-284
Preface to conference proceedingQuantile-Parameterized Distributions for Expert Knowledge Elicitation
Dmytro Perepolkin, Erik Lindström, Ullrika Sahlin
(2025) Decision Analysis, 22 p.169-188
ArticleSynergistic effects of multiple “good agricultural practices” for promoting organic carbon in soils : A systematic review of long-term experiments
Raül López i Losada, Katarina Hedlund, Neal Robert Haddaway, Ullrika Sahlin, Louise E. Jackson, et al.
(2025) Ambio, 54 p.1715-1728
Review articleCausal, predictive or observational? Different understandings of key event relationships for adverse outcome pathways and their implications on practice
Zheng Zhou, Jeroen Pennings, Ullrika Sahlin
(2025) Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology, 113
ArticleExternal evaluation of the scientific basis of the assessment system for ecological condition in Norway
Katarina Eckerberg, Lena Gustafsson, Jon Moen, Andrea Joslyn Nightingale, Patrick Roose, et al.
(2024)
ReportA suggestion for a test if a calibrated quantitative adverse outcome pathway is chemical agnostic based on between chemical heterogeneity : 38th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling
Ullrika Sahlin, Zheng Zhou
(2024) Proceedings of the 38th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling Durham , p.281-284
Paper in conference proceedingDe värsta konsekvenserna av Babet ligger framför oss
Caroline Hallin, Åsa Knaggård, Helena Alexanderson, Ulf Zander, Andreas Persson, et al.
(2024) Sydsvenskan
Newspaper articleHybrid elicitation and quantile-parametrized likelihood
Dmytro Perepolkin, Benjamin Goodrich, Ullrika Sahlin
(2024) Statistics and Computing, 34
ArticleHybrid elicitation and quantile-parametrized likelihood
Dmytro Perepolkin, Benjamin Goodrich, Ullrika Sahlin
(2023)
Preprint (in preprint archive)Transcriptional Responses as Biomarkers of General Toxicity : A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis on Metal-Exposed Bivalves
Gustaf M O Ekelund Ugge, Ullrika Sahlin, Annie Jonsson, Olof Berglund
(2023) Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 42 p.628-641
ArticleCalibration of a bumble bee foraging model using Approximate Bayesian Computation
Charlotte Baey, Henrik G. Smith, Maj Rundlöf, Ola Olsson, Yann Clough, et al.
(2023) Ecological Modelling, 477
ArticleBiologisk mångfald och betydelsen av skyddade områden : Utvärdering och indikatorer i ett landskapsperspektiv
Martin Stjernman, Malin Tälle, Thomas Ranius, Ullrika Sahlin, Erik Öckinger, et al.
(2023) Rapport / Naturvårdsverket
ReportThe tenets of quantile-based inference in Bayesian models
Dmytro Perepolkin, Benjamin Goodrich, Ullrika Sahlin
(2023) Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 187
ArticleFood safety and toxicology : Uncertainty analysis in human risk assessment from chemical exposure
U. Sahlin, S. Sand, H. Wallace, David Galán-Madruga
(2023) Encyclopedia of Toxicology, Fourth Edition: Volume 1-9, 4 p.793-800
Book chapterPresenting Conclusions from Assessed Evidence
William J. Sutherland, Tatsuya Amano, Nicolas Boenisch, Samantha H. Cheng, Alec P. Christie, et al.
(2022) Transforming Conservation: A Practical Guide to Evidence and Decision Making , p.95-132
Book chapterUtmaningar och möjligheter
Katarina Hedlund, Marianne Hall, Peter Olsson, Ullrika Sahlin, Maria Ingimarsdottir, et al.
(2022) CEC Rapport, 7 p.48-60
Chapter in ReportTransforming Practice : Checklists for Delivering Change
Tatsuya Amano, Longji Bako, Marina Best, Nicolas Boenisch, Philipp Boersch-Supan, et al.
(2022) Transforming Conservation: A Practical Guide to Evidence and Decision Making , p.367-386
Book chapterA robust Bayesian bias-adjusted random effects model for consideration of uncertainty about bias terms in evidence synthesis
Ivette Raices Cruz, Matthias C.M. Troffaes, Johan Lindström, Ullrika Sahlin
(2022) Statistics in Medicine, 41 p.3365-3379
ArticleDegree of certainty in scientific advice: implications for risk management and communication : Event report on a training workshop on uncertainty with risk managers
Ullrika Sahlin, Andy Hart, Johanna Zilliacus
(2022) EFSA Supporting Publications, 19
ReportPollinators, pests and yield—Multiple trade-offs from insecticide use in a mass-flowering crop
Jessica L. Knapp, Adam Bates, Ove Jonsson, Björn Klatt, Theresia Krausl, et al.
(2022) Journal of Applied Ecology, 59 p.2419-2429
ArticleA model of wild bee populations accounting for spatial heterogeneity and climate-induced temporal variability of food resources at the landscape level
Maria Blasi, Yann Clough, Anna Maria Jönsson, Ullrika Sahlin
(2022) Ecology and Evolution, 12
ArticleIterative importance sampling with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in robust Bayesian analysis
Ivette Raices Cruz, Johan Lindström, Matthias C.M. Troffaes, Ullrika Sahlin
(2022) Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 176
ArticleA suggestion for the quantification of precise and bounded probability to quantify epistemic uncertainty in scientific assessments
Ivette Raices Cruz, Matthias C.M. Troffaes, Ullrika Sahlin
(2022) Risk Analysis, 42 p.239-253
ArticleBayesian Network Applications for Sustainable Holistic Water Resources Management : Modeling Opportunities for South Africa
Indrani Hazel Govender, Ullrika Sahlin, Gordon C. O'Brien
(2022) Risk Analysis, 42 p.1346-1364
Article“This Is What We Don't Know” : Treating Epistemic Uncertainty in Bayesian Networks for Risk Assessment
Ullrika Sahlin, Inari Helle, Dmytro Perepolkin
(2021) Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 17 p.221-232
ArticleThe tenets of indirect inference in Bayesian models
Dmytro Perepolkin, Benjamin Goodrich, Ullrika Sahlin
(2021)
MiscellaneousCorrelates of intended COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across time and countries : Results from a series of cross-sectional surveys
John R. Kerr, Claudia R. Schneider, Gabriel Recchia, Sarah Dryhurst, Ullrika Sahlin, et al.
(2021) BMJ Open, 11
ArticleRobust Decision Analysis under Severe Uncertainty and Ambiguous Tradeoffs : An Invasive Species Case Study
Ullrika Sahlin, Matthias C.M. Troffaes, Lennart Edsman
(2021) Risk Analysis, 41 p.2140-2153
ArticleBiologiska hot mot humlor
Eva Forsgren, Jenny Henriksson, Lina Herbertsson, Ingrid Karlsson, Joachim R. de Miranda, et al.
(2020) , 2020:14
ReportUtveckling och test av index för biologisk mångfald i ängs- och betesmarker
Ullrika Sahlin, Martin Stjernman, Fabian Roger, Torbjörn Tyler, Ola Olsson, et al.
(2020) Utvärderingsrapport
ReportImpacts of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy “Greening” Reform on Agricultural Development, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services
Jordan Hristov, Yann Clough, Ullrika Sahlin, Henrik G. Smith, Martin Stjernman, et al.
(2020) Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 42 p.716-738
ArticleMarine protected areas modulate habitat suitability of the invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) in the Baltic Sea
Mark Holmes, Jonne Kotta, Anders Persson, Ullrika Sahlin
(2019) Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 229
ArticleEstimating effects of arable land use intensity on farmland birds using joint species modeling
Martin Stjernman, Ullrika Sahlin, Ola Olsson, Henrik G. Smith
(2019) Ecological Applications, 29
ArticleResearchers’ approaches to stakeholders : Interaction or transfer of knowledge?
Åsa Knaggård, Daniel Slunge, Anders Ekbom, Maria Göthberg, Ullrika Sahlin
(2019) Environmental Science and Policy, 97 p.25-35
ArticleAn evaluation of analyses and data collection of winter loss in honey bees in Sweden
Ullrika Sahlin, Björn Klatt
(2018) CEC rapport
ReportImplications of accounting for management intensity on carbon and nitrogen balances of European grasslands
Jan Blanke, Niklas Boke-Olén, Stefan Olin, Jinfeng Chang, Ullrika Sahlin, et al.
(2018) PLoS ONE, 13
ArticleThe potential to use QSAR to populate ecotoxicity characterisation factors for simplified LCIA and chemical prioritisation
Hanna Holmquist, Jenny Lexén, Magnus Rahmberg, Ullrika Sahlin, Julia Grönholdt Palm, et al.
(2018) International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 23 p.2208-2216
ArticlePollinator population size and pollination ecosystem service responses to enhancing floral and nesting resources
Johanna Häussler, Ullrika Sahlin, Charlotte Baey, Henrik G. Smith, Yann Clough
(2017) Ecology and Evolution, 7 p.1898-1908
ArticleDifferences in the strengths of evidence matters in risk–risk trade-offs
Ullrika Sahlin, Maj Rundlöf
(2017) Journal of Risk Research, 20 p.988-994
ArticleAssessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leaching
Jan Hendrik Blanke, Stefan Olin, Julia Stürck, Ullrika Sahlin, Mats Lindeskog, et al.
(2017) Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 239 p.385-398
ArticleSmall data and conflicting information
U. Sahlin
(2017) Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice - Proceedings of the 26th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2016 , p.51
Paper in conference proceedingA note on EFSA’s ongoing efforts to increase transparency of uncertainty in scientific opinions
Ullrika Sahlin, Matthias C.M. Troffaes
(2017) Journal of Risk Research , p.1-8
ArticleRiskanalys av signalkräfta i Sverige : CEC Rapport Nr 04
Ullrika Sahlin, Lennart Edsman, Patrik Bohman
(2017) , 4
ReportStakeholder Interaction in Research Processes : A Guide for Researchers and Research Groups
Daniel Slunge, Olof Drakenberg, Anders Ekbom, Åsa Knaggård, Ullrika Sahlin
(2017)
ReportA model to account for data dependency when estimating floral cover in different land use types over a season
Charlotte Baey, Ullrika Sahlin, Yann Clough, Henrik G. Smith
(2017) Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 24 p.505-527
ArticleMot en evidensbaserad CAP
Juliana Dänhardt, Henrik G. Smith, Mark V. Brady, Ullrika Sahlin
(2016)
MiscellaneousBayesian Evidence Synthesis and the quantification of uncertainty in a Monte Carlo simulation
Ullrika Sahlin, Yf Jiang
(2016) Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 230 p.445-456
ArticleInvasive plant species in the Swedish flora: developing criteria and definitions, and assessing the invasiveness of individual taxa
Torbjörn Tyler, Thomas Karlsson, Per Milberg, Ullrika Sahlin, Sebastian Sundberg
(2015) Nordic Journal of Botany, 33 p.300-317
ArticleAssessment of uncertainty in chemical models by Bayesian probabilities: Why, when, how?
Ullrika Sahlin
(2015) Journal of Computer-Aided Molecular Design, 29 p.583-594
ArticleWhat type of uncertainty is robustness referring to in Information Gap Decision Theory?
U. Sahlin
(2015) Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems - Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015 , p.2797-2804
Paper in conference proceedingEvaluating the impact of climate change on the risk assessment of Nuclear Power Plants
U. Sahlin, F. Di Maio, M. Vagnoli, E. Zio
(2015) Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems - Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015 , p.2613-2621
Paper in conference proceedingApplicability Domain Dependent Predictive Uncertainty in QSAR Regressions
Ullrika Sahlin, N. Jeliazkova, T. Oberg
(2014) Molecular Informatics, 33 p.26-35
ArticleModelling spatial relationships between ecosystem services and agricultural production in an agent-based model
Christoph Sahrbacher, Mark Brady, Yann Clough, Changxing Dong, Ullrika Sahlin, et al.
(2014) , p.1311-1318
Paper, not in proceedingPrognosverktyget Farmland Bird Index : tillämpning och vidareutveckling
Martin Stjernman, Åke Lindström, Ullrika Sahlin, Martin Green, Henrik G. Smith
(2014)
ReportUncertainty in QSAR predictions.
Ullrika Sahlin
(2013) ATLA: Alternatives To Laboratory Animals, 41 p.111-125
ArticleArguments for considering uncertainty in QSAR predictions in hazard and risk assessments.
Ullrika Sahlin, Laura Golsteijn, M Sarfraz Iqbal, Willie Peijnenburg
(2013) ATLA: Alternatives To Laboratory Animals, 41 p.91-110
ArticleThe quality of the outdoor environment influences children's health. -A cross-sectional study of preschools.
Margareta Söderström, Cecilia Boldemann, Ullrika Sahlin, Fredrika Mårtensson, Anders Raustorp, et al.
(2013) Acta paediatrica, 102 p.83-91
ArticleUnderstanding quantitative structure-property relationships uncertainty in environmental fate modeling
M. Sarfraz Iqbal, Laura Golsteijn, Tomas Oberg, Ullrika Sahlin, Ester Papa, et al.
(2013) Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 32 p.1069-1076
ArticleBenefits of biofuels in Sweden: A probabilistic re-assessment of the index of new cars' climate impact
Nils Lubbe, Ullrika Sahlin
(2012) Applied Energy, 92 p.473-479
ArticlePLS-Optimal: A Stepwise D-Optimal Design Based on Latent Variables
Stefan Brandmaier, Ullrika Sahlin, Igor V. Tetko, Tomas Oberg
(2012) Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling, 52 p.975-983
ArticleA Risk Assessment Perspective of Current Practice in Characterizing Uncertainties in QSAR Regression Predictions
Ullrika Sahlin, Monika Filipsson, Tomas Oberg
(2011) Molecular Informatics, 30 p.551-564
ArticleA benefit analysis of screening for invasive species - base-rate uncertainty and the value of information
Ullrika Sahlin, Tobias Rydén, Cecilia D. Nyberg, Henrik Smith
(2011) Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2 p.500-508
ArticleFrom data to decision - learning by probabilistic risk analysis of biological invasions
Ullrika Sahlin
(2010)
Doctoral Thesis (compilation)Time to establishment success for introduced signal crayfish in Sweden - a statistical evaluation when success is partially known
Ullrika Sahlin, Henrik Smith, Lennart Edsman, Göran Bengtsson
(2010) Journal of Applied Ecology, 47 p.1044-1052
ArticleDAISIE - och 100 värstingar
Mora Aronsson, Cecilia Nyberg, Ullrika Sahlin
(2008) Fauna och Flora: populär tidskrift för biologi, 103
Article