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Ullrika Sahlin

I am an Associate Professor Environmental Science at Lund University. My research focus on the quantification of uncertainty and how uncertainty is used in decision making and in particular the management of environmental systems under varying strenghts in knowledge.

Uncertainty and Evidence Lab (UnEviL)

This research group focuses on the management of uncertainty and evidence in risk analysis, evidence synthesis, decision analysis and, never the least, predictive sciences. This include discussing and applying principles and methods for learning, forecasting and decision analysis under different strengths in knowledge. We seek to apply the principles and methods on conceptual and actual problems and we are not limited to a specific application. 

Key interests

  • Environmental decision-making
  • Uncertainty in scientific assessments
  • Decision making under uncertainty
  • Bayesian analysis and its generalisation
  • Ecologic-economic modelling

Selected applications 

  • Ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes
  • Invasive species 
  • Chemical safety 
  • Honey bee health 
  • Litter 
  • Species conservation

My CV (PDF, 184 kB, new tab)


2018– President of the Swedish Society for Risk Sciences (Riskkollegiet)

2017– Research group leader Uncertainty and Evidence Lab 
Uncertainty and Evidence Lab

2015–2017 President of the Nordic Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis

2016 BECC action group: Evidence relying on simulation models and expert judgment. 
About the project on

20142018 Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence Quality assurance in ecosystem service predictions (FORMAS project)

2015 STAKE Practices and barriers of stakeholder interaction – challenges for research projects 
About the study at

2014 Quality in knowledge – BECC action group

Education and awards

I have a Master of Science in Mathematics with a major in Mathematical Statistics, Lund University 2003. My Master thesis "Analysis of forest field data with a spatial approach" was awarded Sparbanksstiftelsen Skåne Nova scholarship of 25,000 SEK 2004.

I also have a Master of Science in Forestry with a major in Forest management, Swedish Agricultural and Forest University, 2000. My master thesis "Modelling spatial variability in low temperature at a landscape level" was awarded Arvid Lindman scholarship of 25,000 SEK in 2001.

2010 I defended my PhD thesis From data to decision – learning by probabilistic risk analysis of biological invasions. Prof Hugh Possingham was my opponent. 

Award in the images of risk competition at ESREL 2016 of my image "The probablity of a unique event". 
Photo at

I received the Richard J. Burk Outstanding Service Award from the Society for Risk Analysis 2016. 

Appointed Docent in Environmental Science at Lund university June 2017. The Swedish title Docent corresponds to Assciate Professor in the US or Reader in the UK. 
My docenture lecture at

Current PhD students

Dmytro Perepolking (main supervisor), Ivette Raices-Cruz (main supervisor), Maria Blasi Romero, Per Gustavsson 

Visiting PhD students

Indrani Govendor, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa – Oct 2016 to April 2017

Former PhD students

Jan Blanke, 2017

Sarfraz Iqbal 2013 Environmental modelling and uncertainty (main supervisor Feb 2012 – Feb 2013)


Niklas Vareman (2016–2017), Charlotte Baey (2016–2018)

Current courses

Introduction to biostatistics MASB11 Spring 2020

Risk, uncertainty and decision-making RUDM ClimBEco/FRAM/LUCRAM 2019 Oct–Nov 2019 
About the course on

Interdisciplinarity in Environmental Research ClimBEco/CEC Oct 2019 
About the course on

Philosophy of Research in Computational Science COMPUTE Oct 2019 
About the course on

Examples of previous courses

Bayesian analysis and decision theory BADT ClimBEco 2018

Graduate course in Risk, Uncertainty and Decision making, NAMV002, ClimBeco/LUCID, October–November 2016. 
About the course on

Seventh school of the Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (SIPTA), Aug 29 – Sep 2, 2016, Durham, UK. 
About the SIPTA summer school on

Bayesian Analysis and Decision Theory NAMV001 – As a summer school August–September 2015.  
About the summer school on

Environmental risk analysis at Lund University MVEC12 (Lectures and assignments). Teaching students about quantifying uncertainty.

Applied Ecotoxicology LU BIOR52 (Lecture and exercise) EFSA and other stuff.

Conservation Biology (Lecture and exercise) – population viability analysis with more or less data.



Retrieved from Lund University's publications database



Retrieved from Lund University's publications database


Retrieved from Lund University's publications database

Ullrika Sahlin. Photo.
E-mail: ullrika [dot] sahlin [at] cec [dot] lu [dot] se

Senior lecturer

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research (CEC)

+46 73 827 44 32


Ekologihuset, Sölvegatan 37, Lund




7 July 2020
Forskarfredag är en del av European Researchers Night och infaller i år den 27 november (…

Uncertainty at ECORISK2050

1 July 2020
On June 30th 2020 I gave a MOOC lecture at the ECORISK 2050 training network about How to become a master of being uncertain …

RISKUT – a conference for those teaching risk

29 May 2020
RISKUT is a conference organised by the Swedish society for risk sciences (Riskkollegiet). This year (2020) it will be held online on August…


Upcoming conferences

  • Nordic chapter Risk Conference Kaunas november 5-6 2020

Past conferences

Workshops - Sahlin

Uncertainty analysis in predictive assessments Nov 2020

Evidence synthesis Nov 2019

BayesDays Liverpool October 21-22 2019

Quantifying uncertainty by precise and bounded probability. Liverpool January 2019, Berlin February 22nd 2019

Uncertainty in scientific assessments South Africa Workshop Durban January 2019

Quantifying uncertainty by probability. Lund October 10th. Stavanger November 7th 2018 

Stakeholders - Sahlin

Work interacting with stakeholders

The European Food Safety Authority - member of the cross cutting working group on uncertainty (from nov 2019)

The Swedish Board of Agriculture - Indices for biodiversity in grasslands 

A report on data collection and analysis of winter loss in Sweden is finished as part of the project Samverkan för god bihälsa.

The project Gaming for better decisions under uncertainty is finished. 

This is where you can download the risk analysis of signal crayfish report 

Pollinera Sverige - Swedish pollination network

Independent expert in the MUST-B working group at EFSA

Risk analysis on the signal crayfish for the Swedish Water Agency

The Nordic Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis

Work on promoting Bayesian methods in research - annual mini conference Bayes@Lund 

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, CEC

Sölvegatan 37
223 62 Lund, Sweden

Visiting address
The Ecology Building, Sölvegatan 37, Lund

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