I am an Associate Professor of Environmental Science at Lund University. My research focuses on the quantification and communication of uncertainty in scientific assessments and how uncertainty can be considered in decision making, in particular in the management of environmental systems under varying strengths in knowledge.
Uncertainty and Evidence Lab (UnEviL)
My research group focuses on the management of uncertainty and evidence in risk assessment, evidence synthesis and decision analysis. We discuss the principles and methods on conceptual and actual problems and we are not limited to a specific application.
- Uncertainty in scientific assessments
- Decision making under uncertainty
- Subjective probability
- Bayesian analysis and modelling
- Ecologic-economic modelling
- Ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes
- Invasive species
- Chemical safety
- Honey bee health
- Species conservation
2020 – Member of LU Futura (representing the Natural Science Faculty)
2018 – President of the Swedish Society for Risk Sciences (Riskkollegiet)
2017– Research group leader Uncertainty and Evidence Lab
Uncertainty and Evidence Lab
2015–2017 President of the Nordic Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis
2016 BECC action group: Evidence relying on simulation models and expert judgment.
About the project on portal.research.lu.se
2014–2018 Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence – Quality assurance in ecosystem service predictions (FORMAS project)
2015 STAKE Practices and barriers of stakeholder interaction – challenges for research projects
About the study at becc.lu.se
2014 Quality in knowledge – BECC action group
Education and awards
I have a Master of Science in Mathematics with a major in Mathematical Statistics, Lund University 2003. My Master thesis "Analysis of forest field data with a spatial approach" was awarded Sparbanksstiftelsen Skåne Nova scholarship of 25,000 SEK 2004.
I also have a Master of Science in Forestry with a major in Forest Management, Swedish Agricultural and Forest University, 2000. My master thesis "Modelling spatial variability in low temperature at a landscape level" was awarded Arvid Lindman scholarship of 25,000 SEK in 2001.
2010 I defended my PhD thesis From data to decision – learning by probabilistic risk analysis of biological invasions. Prof Hugh Possingham was my opponent.
Award in the images of risk competition at ESREL 2016 of my image "The probability of a unique event".
Photo at evidence.blogg.lu.se
I received the Richard J. Burk Outstanding Service Award from the Society for Risk Analysis 2016.
Appointed Docent in Environmental Science at Lund University in June 2017. The Swedish title Docent corresponds to Associate Professor in the US or Reader in the UK.
My docenture lecture at evidence.blogg.lu.se
Current PhD students
Dmytro Perepolking (main supervisor), Ivette Raices-Cruz (main supervisor), Maria Blasi Romero, Per Gustavsson, Vladimir Stepanov (Liverpool University, UK)
Visiting PhD students
Indrani Govendor, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa – Oct 2016 to April 2017
Former PhD students
Jan Blanke, 2017
Sarfraz Iqbal 2013 Environmental modelling and uncertainty (main supervisor Feb 2012 – Feb 2013)
Niklas Vareman (2016–2017), Charlotte Baey (2016–2018), Jessica Knapp (2019-2020)
Introduction to biostatistics MASB11 Spring 2021
Applied ecotoxicology (lectures) spring 2021
Sustainable Land Use Agenda2030 Spring 2021
Examples of previous courses
Risk, uncertainty and decision-making RUDM ClimBEco/FRAM/LUCRAM 2019 Oct–Nov 2019
Interdisciplinarity in Environmental Research ClimBEco/CEC 2019, 2020
Bayesian analysis and decision theory BADT ClimBEco 2018
Graduate course in Risk, Uncertainty and Decision making, NAMV002, ClimBeco/LUCID, October–November 2016.
Seventh school of the Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (SIPTA), Aug 29 – Sep 2, 2016, Durham, UK.
Bayesian Analysis and Decision Theory NAMV001 – As a summer school August–September 2015.
Environmental risk analysis at Lund University MVEC12 (Lectures and assignments). Teaching students about quantifying uncertainty.
Applied Ecotoxicology LU BIOR52 (Lecture and exercise)
Conservation Biology (Lecture and exercise)
Displaying of publications. Sorted by year, then title.
- “This Is What We Don't Know” : Treating Epistemic Uncertainty in Bayesian Networks for Risk AssessmentUllrika Sahlin, Inari Helle, Dmytro Perepolkin
(2021) Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 17 p.221-232
(2019) Ecological Applications, 29
- Marine protected areas modulate habitat suitability of the invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) in the Baltic SeaMark Holmes, Jonne Kotta, Anders Persson, Ullrika Sahlin
(2019) Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 229
(2019) Environmental Science and Policy, 97 p.25-35
- The potential to use QSAR to populate ecotoxicity characterisation factors for simplified LCIA and chemical prioritisationHanna Holmquist, Jenny Lexén, Magnus Rahmberg, Ullrika Sahlin, Julia Grönholdt Palm, et al.
(2018) International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 23 p.2208-2216
- Implications of accounting for management intensity on carbon and nitrogen balances of European grasslandsJan Blanke, Niklas Boke-Olén, Stefan Olin, Jinfeng Chang, Ullrika Sahlin, et al.
(2018) PLoS ONE, 13
(2018) CEC rapport
- A model to account for data dependency when estimating floral cover in different land use types over a seasonCharlotte Baey, Ullrika Sahlin, Yann Clough, Henrik G. Smith
(2017) Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 24 p.505-527
(2017) Journal of Risk Research, 20 p.988-994
(2017) Journal of Risk Research , p.1-8
- Pollinator population size and pollination ecosystem service responses to enhancing floral and nesting resourcesJohanna Häussler, Ullrika Sahlin, Charlotte Baey, Henrik G. Smith, Yann Clough
(2017) Ecology and Evolution, 7 p.1898-1908
- Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leachingJan Hendrik Blanke, Stefan Olin, Julia Stürck, Ullrika Sahlin, Mats Lindeskog, et al.
(2017) Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 239 p.385-398
(2017) Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice - Proceedings of the 26th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2016 , p.51-51
(2016) Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 230 p.445-456
- Invasive plant species in the Swedish flora: developing criteria and definitions, and assessing the invasiveness of individual taxaTorbjörn Tyler, Thomas Karlsson, Per Milberg, Ullrika Sahlin, Sebastian Sundberg
(2015) Nordic Journal of Botany, 33 p.300-317
(2015) Journal of Computer-Aided Molecular Design, 29 p.583-594
(2015) Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems - Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015 , p.2797-2804
(2015) Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems - Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015 , p.2613-2621
(2014) Molecular Informatics, 33 p.26-35
(2013) ATLA: Alternatives To Laboratory Animals, 41 p.111-125
- Understanding quantitative structure-property relationships uncertainty in environmental fate modelingM. Sarfraz Iqbal, Laura Golsteijn, Tomas Oberg, Ullrika Sahlin, Ester Papa, et al.
(2013) Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 32 p.1069-1076
(2013) ATLA: Alternatives To Laboratory Animals, 41 p.91-110
- The quality of the outdoor environment influences children's health. -A cross-sectional study of preschools.Margareta Söderström, Cecilia Boldemann, Ullrika Sahlin, Fredrika Mårtensson, Anders Raustorp, et al.
(2013) Acta paediatrica, 102 p.83-91
- Benefits of biofuels in Sweden: A probabilistic re-assessment of the index of new cars' climate impactNils Lubbe, Ullrika Sahlin
(2012) Applied Energy, 92 p.473-479
(2012) Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling, 52 p.975-983
- A benefit analysis of screening for invasive species - base-rate uncertainty and the value of informationUllrika Sahlin, Tobias Rydén, Cecilia D. Nyberg, Henrik Smith
(2011) Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2 p.500-508
- A Risk Assessment Perspective of Current Practice in Characterizing Uncertainties in QSAR Regression PredictionsUllrika Sahlin, Monika Filipsson, Tomas Oberg
(2011) Molecular Informatics, 30 p.551-564
- Time to establishment success for introduced signal crayfish in Sweden - a statistical evaluation when success is partially knownUllrika Sahlin, Henrik Smith, Lennart Edsman, Göran Bengtsson
(2010) Journal of Applied Ecology, 47 p.1044-1052
(2008) Fauna och Flora: populär tidskrift för biologi, 103
Read more on evidence.blogg.lu.se
- none planned yet
- Society for Risk Analysis US 2020
- SETAC North America 2020
- Nordic chapter Risk Conference Kaunas november 5-6 2020
- SETAC Dublin 2020
- Nordic Chapter Risk Conference Copenhagen Nov 7-8
- ESREL 2020 PSAM 15 Venice 21-26 June
- ESREL2019 Hannover
- RISKUT 2019 - a conference about teaching risk (organiser)
- Computer Aided Drug Design (CADD) GORDON research conference Vermont 2019 - I gave a talk about uncertainty in individual predictions
- Society for Imprecise Probability SIPTA July Belgium
- Bayes@Lund2019 7 May (organiser)
- SETAC 2019 - Helsinki
- Jont EFSA/Bfr International Conference on Uncertainty in Risk Analysis Feb 21-22 2019
- SRA Nordic chapter Stavanger Nov 8-9 - I gave a tutorial here
- EFSA Conference Sept 18-21
- SRA Europe Östersund - June 2018
- Bayes@2018 - April 12th 2018
- CEE in Paris April
- SRA Nordic chapter conference Finland Nov 2-3
- BayesDays at Liverpool (I will give a tutorial on Quantifying uncertainty using data and experts see program)
- SRA Europe Lissbon, Portugal 19-21 June
- The Cambridge Risk and Uncertainty (RUC) Conference June 12-14th
- Bayes@Lund2017 - for the 4th time on April 19th and 20th Twitter #bayeslund17
- The Annual meeting of the Swedish Professional Beekepers, Nyköping 2017
- SRA, San Diego, USA, December 2016 - uncertainty according to EFSA & what is robustness to uncertainty
- ESREL Glasgow, UK, 25-29 September 2016 - paper on small data and conflicting information
- SRA Nordic, Göteborg, Sweden, 14-15 November 2016 - the new SRA glossary
- First International Conference of the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence, Stockholm, Sweden, 25-27th August, 2016
- SRA Europe Bath, UK, 20-22nd June, 2016 - presentation on small data and statistics
- Bayes@Lund2016 Feb 5th, Lund, Sweden. - what do we mean by evidence really?
- SRA Nordic chapter conference Lund 16 - 17 November
- ESREL 2015 7-10 September 2015
- WPMSIIP 8th Workshop on Principles and Methods of Statistical Inference with Interval Probability, Munich Sept 5th 2015.
- SETAC Europe 25th Annual Meeting in Barcelona, Spain, 3 - 7 May 2015, Julia held an excellent presenation of what we call Information Quality Impact Analysis
- The European Climate Change Adaptation Conference (ECCA) 2015 12-14 May. Poster “Who decides the treatment of knowledge-based uncertainty – decision makers, assessors or the epistemic situation?”
- SRA Europe Maastricht 15-17 June 2015 - The Nordic Chapter under SRA Europe is now up an running.
Workshops - Sahlin
Uncertainty analysis in predictive assessments Nov 2020
Evidence synthesis Nov 2019
BayesDays Liverpool October 21-22 2019
Quantifying uncertainty by precise and bounded probability. Liverpool January 2019, Berlin February 22nd 2019
Uncertainty in scientific assessments South Africa Workshop Durban January 2019
Stakeholders - Sahlin
Work interacting with stakeholders
The European Food Safety Authority - member of the cross cutting working group on uncertainty (from nov 2019)
The Swedish Board of Agriculture - Indices for biodiversity in grasslands
A report on data collection and analysis of winter loss in Sweden is finished as part of the project Samverkan för god bihälsa.
The project Gaming for better decisions under uncertainty is finished.
This is where you can download the risk analysis of signal crayfish report
Pollinera Sverige - Swedish pollination network
Independent expert in the MUST-B working group at EFSA
Risk analysis on the signal crayfish for the Swedish Water Agency
Work on promoting Bayesian methods in research - annual mini conference Bayes@Lund