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ullrika at the uncertainty show

Ullrika Sahlin

Senior lecturer

ullrika at the uncertainty show

Hybrid elicitation and quantile-parametrized likelihood

Author

  • Dmytro Perepolkin
  • Benjamin Goodrich
  • Ullrika Sahlin

Summary, in English

This paper extends the application of quantile-based Bayesian inference to probability distributions defined in terms of quantiles of observable quantities. Quantile-parameterized distributions are characterized by high shape flexibility and parameter interpretability, making them useful for eliciting information about observables. To encode uncertainty in the quantiles elicited from experts, we propose a Bayesian model based on the metalog distribution and a variant of the Dirichlet prior. We discuss the resulting hybrid expert elicitation protocol, which aims to characterize uncertainty in parameters by asking questions about observable quantities. We also compare and contrast this approach with parametric and predictive elicitation methods.

Department/s

  • Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)
  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system

Publishing year

2023-10-04

Language

English

Document type

Preprint

Publisher

OSF

Topic

  • Probability Theory and Statistics

Status

Published