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Uncertainty and Evidence Lab


This research group focus on the management of epistemic uncertainty in scientific assessments. This includes discussing and applying principles and methods for learning, forecasting and decision analysis under different strengths in knowledge. We seek to apply the principles and methods on conceptual and actual problems in risk analysis, evidence synthesis and decision analysis.

Uncertainty and Evidence Lab started in 2017 with regular research meetings at the Centre of Environmental and Climate Research. We are primarily focusing on the characterisation of uncertainty in scientific assessments and computational methods to support research and the production of scientific advice.

Contact the research group leader Ullrika if you want to know more.
Ullrika Sahlin

Ongoing projects and activities:


H2020-project RiskHunt3R

MISTRA Biopath

Interaction with Society

Expert support to scientific assessments e.g. at the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)

Develop and conduct online training courses on Expert Knowledge Elicitation for EFSA OC/EFSA/AMU/2021/02 EKE

Outreach activities

The Uncertainty Show

who we are


Photos of eight group members holding signs saying "I am not sure" in Swedish.

Recent posts at

Dear fellow Bayesians! Registration for the upcoming Bayes@Lund 2023 is now open! The purpose of Bayes@Lund is to bring ...
  We are approaching the final set of training courses on Expert Knowledge Elicitation offered during 2022-2023 In June ...
We are happy to announce the mid-term seminar for Dmytro Perepolkin, PhD student, at CEC, Lund University on October 19t...