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ullrika at the uncertainty show

Ullrika Sahlin

Senior lecturer

ullrika at the uncertainty show

Differences in the strengths of evidence matters in risk–risk trade-offs

Author

  • Ullrika Sahlin
  • Maj Rundlöf

Summary, in English

Making decisions between alternatives are challenging when there is weak or unreliable knowledge about the risks and benefits of the alternatives. This requires a trade-off between risks (and benefits). Here, we comment on a recent paper on risk–risk trade-offs and highlight the difficulties of making such trade-offs when the available evidence is of different strength. One current example of a risk–risk trade-off under weak evidence is the restriction and reevaluation of the risks of neonicotinoid insecticides to bees conducted by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). We argue that a risk–risk trade-off is essential in this context. Although considerable research efforts have been focused at determining the risks of neonicotinoids to bees, the evidence base is still limited. However, focus on strengthening evidence on impacts of one substance may lead policy-makers and public to believe that its substitutes are less harmful, when in fact evidence is weak on the impacts of these substitutes as well. We argue that a broader management of uncertainty is needed and that the difference in uncertainty underlying evidence of risk for different alternatives needs to be communicated to policy-makers. We suggest that this can be done, for example, using measures of uncertainty, which take into account strength in evidence, and combine these with principles to guide decision-making.

Department/s

  • Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)
  • Biodiversity
  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • Biodiversity and Conservation Science

Publishing year

2017-08-03

Language

English

Pages

988-994

Publication/Series

Journal of Risk Research

Volume

20

Issue

8

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Routledge

Topic

  • Environmental Sciences
  • Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified

Keywords

  • decision-making
  • evidence
  • neonicotinoids
  • risk–risk trade-offs
  • uncertainty

Status

Published

Project

  • Uncertainty and Evidence Lab
  • DEveloping Landscape Ecotoxicology in Terrestrial Ecosystems (DELETE): Pesticide Exposure and Effects on Bees

Research group

  • Biodiversity and Conservation Science

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1366-9877