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ullrika at the uncertainty show

Ullrika Sahlin

Senior lecturer

ullrika at the uncertainty show

Bayesian Network Applications for Sustainable Holistic Water Resources Management : Modeling Opportunities for South Africa

Author

  • Indrani Hazel Govender
  • Ullrika Sahlin
  • Gordon C. O'Brien

Summary, in English

Anthropogenic transformation of land globally is threatening water resources in terms of quality and availability. Managing water resources to ensure sustainable utilization is important for a semiarid country such as South Africa. Bayesian networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that have been applied globally to a range of water resources management studies; however, there has been very limited application of BNs to similar studies in South Africa. This article explores the benefits and challenges of BN application in the context of water resources management, specifically in relation to South Africa. A brief overview describes BNs, followed by details of some of the possible opportunities for BNs to benefit water resources management. These include the ability to use quantitative and qualitative information, data, and expert knowledge. BN models can be integrated into geographic information systems and predict impact of ecosystem services and sustainability indicators. With additional data and information, BNs can be updated, allowing for integration into an adaptive management process. Challenges in the application of BNs include oversimplification of complex systems, constraints of BNs with categorical nodes for continuous variables, unclear use of expert knowledge, and treatment of uncertainty. BNs have tremendous potential to guide decision making by providing a holistic approach to water resources management.

Department/s

  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
  • Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)

Publishing year

2022

Language

English

Pages

1346-1364

Publication/Series

Risk Analysis

Volume

42

Issue

6

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

John Wiley & Sons Inc.

Topic

  • Probability Theory and Statistics
  • Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources

Keywords

  • Bayesian networks
  • South Africa
  • water resources

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0272-4332