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Deniz Koca. Photo.

Deniz Koca

Researcher

Deniz Koca. Photo.

Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves

Author

  • Harald Sverdrup
  • Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir
  • Deniz Koca

Summary, in English

The reserves, production from mines, supply of aluminium to society and mass fluxes of aluminium in society was assessed using an integrated systems dynamics model (ALUMINIUM) in order to reconstruct the past and investigate potential future scenarios. The investigations for input data show that the mine- able aluminium reserves are large, but finite. We get an average value for the ultimately recoverable reserve to be about 20–25 billion ton aluminium. The production of aluminium at present is 50 million ton per year. Continuing business-as-usual consumption with sustained global population growth above 7 billion people combined with a decline in cheap fossil fuels, aluminium may in the long perspective be a more expensive product than today. Should the event of a need for substituting a significant part of copper, iron, steel and stainless steel with aluminium arise, the time to scarcity for aluminium could become an issue within the next four decades. Ultimately, continuation of the aluminium production may in the future become limited by access to energy. Whereas aluminium primary production may go through a peak in the next decades, supply to society will not reach a peak before the end of the century, because of recycling from the stock in society. The model suggests that the supply level will decline to 2014 level sometime around 2250, or 230 years into the future.

Department/s

  • Division of Chemical Engineering
  • Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)

Publishing year

2015

Language

English

Pages

139-154

Publication/Series

Resources, Conservation & Recycling

Volume

103

Issue

103

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Elsevier

Topic

  • Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Keywords

  • Aluminium
  • Mining
  • System Dynamics
  • Reserves
  • Price

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0921-3449