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Natascha Kljun. Photo.

Natascha Kljun


Natascha Kljun. Photo.

Projected effects of climate change and forest management on carbon fluxes and biomass of a boreal forest


  • Md Rafikul Islam
  • Anna Maria Jönsson
  • John Bergkvist
  • Fredrik Lagergren
  • Mats Lindeskog
  • Meelis Mölder
  • Marko Scholze
  • Natascha Kljun

Summary, in English

Boreal forests are key to global carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these forests could be profound. Nearly 70 % of the European boreal forests are intensively managed, but our understanding of the combined effects of forest management and climate change on the forest's integral role as a C sink is still limited. In this study, we aim to fill this gap with simulations of the process-based dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We evaluated the effects of four forest management options under two different climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), at a southern boreal forest stand in Sweden. These options were compared against a baseline without clear-cut or management interventions. We found that the projected increase in temperatures (+2 to +4 °C) during the latter part of the 21st century will reduce the net C sink strength, particularly in the unmanaged forest. The standing biomass C for reforestations was projected to be 57–67 % lower in 2100 than in the old forest in 2022. The study also revealed that the C sequestration potential of replanted pine forests may surpass that of 200-years old forests in the far future (2076–2100). The study did not detect statistically significant differences in overall net C exchange between the clear-cut with subsequent reforestation options and the baseline, even though specific reforestation strategies, such as pine plantations, enhanced the overall net C sink by 7–20 % relative to the baseline during 2022–2100. These findings underscore the profound influence of forest management on the net C budget, surpassing that of climate change scenarios alone. By adopting pertinent reforestation strategies, C uptake could be augmented, with concurrently improved forest productivity, resulting in favourable outcomes for the forest's critical role in C sequestration and storage amidst a changing climate.


  • Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)
  • LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions
  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • ICOS Sweden
  • LTH Profile Area: Aerosols
  • eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system

Publishing year





Agricultural and Forest Meteorology



Document type

Journal article




  • Environmental Sciences
  • Other Natural Sciences


  • Carbon compensation point (CCP)
  • Climate scenario (RCP)
  • Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS)
  • Norunda SE-Nor, Sweden
  • Process-based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS
  • Reforestation




  • Climate costs of boreal forest clear-cutting – a multiscale experiment


  • ISSN: 0168-1923