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Paul Miller. Photo.

Paul Miller

Senior lecturer

Paul Miller. Photo.

Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000-2020

Author

  • Zhen Zhang
  • Benjamin Poulter
  • Joe R. Melton
  • William J. Riley
  • George H. Allen
  • David J. Beerling
  • Philippe Bousquet
  • Josep G. Canadell
  • Etienne Fluet-Chouinard
  • Philippe Ciais
  • Nicola Gedney
  • Peter O. Hopcroft
  • Akihiko Ito
  • Robert B. Jackson
  • Atul K. Jain
  • Katherine Jensen
  • Fortunat Joos
  • Thomas Kleinen
  • Sara H. Knox
  • Tingting Li
  • Xin Li
  • Xiangyu Liu
  • Kyle Mcdonald
  • Gavin Mcnicol
  • Paul A. Miller
  • Jurek Müller
  • Prabir K. Patra
  • Changhui Peng
  • Shushi Peng
  • Zhangcai Qin
  • Ryan M. Riggs
  • Marielle Saunois
  • Qing Sun
  • Hanqin Tian
  • Xiaoming Xu
  • Yuanzhi Yao
  • Yi Xi
  • Wenxin Zhang
  • Qing Zhu
  • Qiuan Zhu
  • Qianlai Zhuang
Show all

Summary, in English

Due to ongoing climate change, methane (CH4) emissions from vegetated wetlands are projected to increase during the 21st century, challenging climate mitigation efforts aimed at limiting global warming. However, despite reports of rising emission trends, a comprehensive evaluation and attribution of recent changes remains limited. Here we assessed global wetland CH4 emissions from 2000-2020 based on an ensemble of 16 process-based wetland models. Our results estimated global average wetland CH4 emissions at 158 ± 24 (mean ± 1σ) Tg CH4 yr-1 over a total annual average wetland area of 8.0 ± 2.0×106 km2 for the period 2010-2020, with an average increase of 6-7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2010-2019 compared to the average for 2000-2009. The increases in the four latitudinal bands of 90-30° S, 30° S-30° N, 30-60° N, and 60-90° N were 0.1-0.2, 3.6-3.7, 1.8-2.4, and 0.6-0.8 Tg CH4 yr-1, respectively, over the 2 decades. The modeled CH4 sensitivities to temperature show reasonable consistency with eddy-covariance-based measurements from 34 sites. Rising temperature was the primary driver of the increase, while precipitation and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations played secondary roles with high levels of uncertainty. These modeled results suggest that climate change is driving increased wetland CH4 emissions and that direct and sustained measurements are needed to monitor developments.

Department/s

  • LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions
  • LTH Profile Area: Aerosols
  • eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration
  • Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)
  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system

Publishing year

2025-01-15

Language

English

Pages

305-321

Publication/Series

Biogeosciences

Volume

22

Issue

1

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Copernicus GmbH

Topic

  • Climate Science

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1726-4170