Menu

Javascript is not activated in your browser. This website needs javascript activated to work properly.
You are here

Lundaloppet predictive challenge 2017

spring
Photo: Melburnian
Guess your time in Lundaloppet 2017 and express your uncertainty in your running time in which way you want! After the race on May 13th and the actual running times are known, we will evaluate the performances of all predictions. The results will be presented in June, where we will hand out several awards.

Guess your time in Lundaloppet 2017 and express your uncertainty in your running time in which way you want! After the race on May 13th and the actual running times are known, we will evaluate the performances of all predictions. The results will be presented in June, where we will hand out several awards.

Make your forecast here

The purposes with the challenge are to highlight what it means to forecast with uncertainty and collect examples of how people prefer to express uncertainty. Any way to express uncertainty is allowed, ranging from qualitative to quantitative, using probabilistic and non-probabilistic descriptions.

The participants are asked to guess their own running time and are therefore basing the forecast on best available (expert’s) knowledge. The nature of the question force them to think about uncertainty as their own, which demonstrate the subjective nature of uncertainty. Finally, participants are asked to rate their confidence in their forecasts, which is a more frequently occurring way to judge strength in predictive knowledge.  

The Lundaloppet predictive challenge was previously been given 2014 with great success.

This challenge is organized by the research group UnEviL (Uncertainty and Evidence Lab) at the Centre of Environmental and Climate research and is an activity of the BECC action group: Evidence relying on simulation models and expert judgment. More info and updates at the website for the challenge

Latest articles

14/12/2017
Film from workshop about ecosystem services in agricultural production
Film from workshop about ecosystem services in agricultural production
05/12/2017
To plow a lot, a little or not at all
To plow a lot, a little or not at all
09/11/2017
Rich pollination improves strawberry harvesting
Rich pollination improves strawberry harvesting
22/10/2017
Aerosol particles impact on the climate
Aerosol particles impact on the climate
12/10/2017
Climate change - the state of knowledge, politics and innovations as a solution
Climate change - the state of knowledge, politics and innovations as a solution

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, CEC

Sölvegatan 37
223 62 Lund, Sweden

Visiting address
The Ecology building, Sölvegatan 37, Lund