Food safety and toxicology : Uncertainty analysis in human risk assessment from chemical exposure

Summary, in English

Uncertainty analysis should be an integral part of conducting a scientific investigation of the damaging human health effects of exposure to chemicals. Sources of uncertainty related to limitations in knowledge are present in all steps of a such risk assessment, i.e. the hazard identification, hazard characterization and exposure assessment. The purpose of uncertainty analysis is to evaluate the combined impact of these uncertainties on the risk characterization. The article describes ways to consider uncertainty in each of these steps, and different approaches of doing the assessment. Hazard characterization uncertainty is discussed, relying on two approaches: uncertainty factors and dose-response modelling. Uncertainties in exposure assessment fall into three broad categories: scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and exposure factor uncertainty. It is recommended to conduct an uncertainty analysis as a tiered approach, where the level of precision can be more refined by using more sophisticated methods, or efforts can be made to reduce uncertainty, until the degree of certainty cannot be further refined by the experts or is acceptable to decision makers as sufficient for risk management.

• Author: U. Sahlin; S. Sand; H. Wallace; David Galán-Madruga
• Department/s: Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC); BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate; MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
• Publishing year: 2023
• Language: English
• Pages: 793-800
• Publication/Series: Encyclopedia of Toxicology, Fourth Edition : Volume 1-9
• Volume: 4
• Links: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-824315-2.01113-1
• Document type: Book chapter
• Publisher: ScienceDirect, Elsevier
• Topic: Environmental Sciences
• Keywords: Benchmark dose; Causal analysis; Dose-response model; Expert judgment; Exposure factor; Exposure model; Exposure scenario; Guidance value; Guideline value; Lowest observed adverse effect level; No observed adverse effect level; Overall uncertainty; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty analysis; Uncertainty factor
• Status: Published
• ISBN/ISSN/Other: ISBN: 9780128243152