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Ullrika Sahlin

My research is directed towards the practical implementation of decision making under uncertainty. I take inspiration from management of environmental systems given the current state of knowledge. 

Key interests

• Environmental decision making under uncertainty
• Philosophy of risk, uncertainty and quantitative modelling
• Ecological and economical risks and climate change
• Bayesian and Robust Bayesian predictive inference

Selected fields of application

• Risk and impact assessments in Ecological-Economic systems • Biodiversity and ecosystem services • Invasive species • Chemical regulation • System safety and reliability

We will soon announce a PhD-position in Environmental Science about "Robust analysis for evidence-based environmental decision making".

The candidate will work with Robust (or generalized) Bayesian analysis as an approach to consider varying strengt in knowledge. Case-studies include evidence-based evaluation of greening measures in the agricultural policy (CAP)  and risk assessment of invasive alien species with partial or no information. 

Don't miss the 7th SIPTA Summer School  

Visit my blog Environmental Evidence Synthesis

See my publications at Research gate


2016 BECC action group: Evidence relying on simulation models and expert judgment.

2014 - 2018 Quality in knowledge. Project leader of FORMAS project “Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence - Quality assurance in ecosystem service predictions”.

2015 STAKE Practices and barriers of stakeholder interaction – challenges for research projects

2012 - 2013 Towards decision making under uncertainty as part of PLANFISH.

2012 QSAR-integrated hazard and risk assessment, workpackage leader EU-project CADASTER.


2016 Matthias Troffaes, Durham University, UK

2015 John-Paul Gosling at University of Leeds, UK. 

As a postdoc I made the following visits: 

2012-2014 Postdoc in economic-ecological modelling at Lund university Centre of Environmental and Climate research in SAPES research environment and EU-project Liberation.

2012-2013 (three months) Prof Hugh Possingham and Environmental Decision Group at University of Queensland, Australia.

2010-2012 Linneaus University, Sweden. in the EU-project CADASTER on the quantification of uncertainty in QSARs for chemical regulation under REACH.

I also got inspiration from here: 

CSIRO, Hobart, Keith Hayes PhD, October – February 2006-07

Feb 2013 Terry Walsh at Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA) at University of Melbourne, Australia.

Upcoming conferences

Past conferences

  • Bayes@Lund2016 Feb 5th, Lund, Sweden. 
  • SRA Nordic chapter conference  Lund 16 - 17 November 
  • ESREL 2015 7-10 September 2015
  • WPMSIIP 8th Workshop on Principles and Methods of Statistical Inference with Interval Probability, Munich Sept 5th 2015.
  • SETAC Europe 25th Annual Meeting in Barcelona, Spain, 3 - 7 May 2015, Julia held an excellent presenation of what we call  Information Quality Impact Analysis 
  • The European Climate Change Adaptation Conference (ECCA) 2015 12-14 May. Poster “Who decides the treatment of knowledge-based uncertainty – decision makers, assessors or the epistemic situation?”  
  • SRA Europe Maastricht 15-17 June 2015 - The Nordic Chapter under SRA Europe is now up an running.

My education

I have a Master of Science in Mathematics with a major in Mathematical Statistics, Lund University 2003. Master thesis Analysis of forest field data with a spatial approach was awarded Sparbanksstiftelsen Skåne Nova scholarship on 25 000 SEK 2004. I also have a Master of Science in Forestry with a major in Forest management, Swedish Agricultural and Forest University, 2000. The master thesis Modelling spatial variability in low temperature at a landscape level was awarded Arvid Lindman scholarship on 25 000 SEK in 2001.

Current PhD students

Jan Blanke

Former PhD students

Sarfraz Iqbal 2013 Environmental modelling and uncertainty (main supervisor during Feb 2012- Feb 2013)

For master students

I supervise projects for master students from e.g. Environmental, Computer or Information Sciences, Mathematical Statistics or Risk Management.

Previous master students

Anna Larsson, Julia Grönholdt Palm, Jens Worning, Yf Jiang, Marit March Strömberg, Nils Lubbe


I have been teaching in courses in environmental risk analysis, mathematical statistics, experimental design and variance analysis, introductory course in R, and biological conservation.

Current teaching

Seventh school of the Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (SIPTA), Aug 29 - Sep 2, 2016, Durham, UK.

Bayesian Analysis and Decision Theory NAMV001 - summer school held August-September 2015

Environmental risk analysis at Lund University MVEC12

me in Lundagård
E-mail: ullrika [dot] sahlin [at] cec [dot] lu [dot] se


Centre for Environmental and Climate Research (CEC)

+46 46 222 68 31

+46 73 827 44 32



Read more on the blog

EFSAs treatment of uncertainty under trial

2016-05-23 08:56
The way uncertainty is treated in risk assessment is under scrutiny. There is a need for this since we today face more complex problems and …

2nd Nordic chapter risk conference in Göteborg

2016-05-16 23:57
The Nordic-Baltic chapter of Society of Risk Analysis proudly presents the call for the second Nordic chapter meeting. The theme of the conf…

It is time to reconsider how we think about risk

2016-05-16 19:40
Risk is something that concerns us all. Risk has become an integrated part of decision making and it is acknowledged that decisions should b…

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, CEC

Sölvegatan 37
223 62 Lund, Sweden

Visiting address
The Ecology building, Sölvegatan 37, Lund