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Ullrika Sahlin

My research is directed towards the practical implementation of normative theories for decision making under uncertainty. I take inspiration from the management of environmental systems given the current state of knowledge. 

Uncertainty and Evidence Lab (UnEviL)

This research group focus on the management of uncertainty and evidence in risk analysis, evidence synthesis, decision analysis and, never the least, predictive sciences. This include discussing and applying principles and methods for learning, forecasting and decision analysis under different strengths in knowledge. We seek to apply the principles and methods on conceptual and actual problems and we are not limited to a specific application. 

Key interests

  • Environmental decision making
  • Process-based modelling
  • Decision making under uncertainty
  • Bayesian analysis and its generalisation

Selected applications that I am working with

• Ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes • Invasive species • Chemical safety • System safety and reliability • Forestry • Conservation 

March 28 - 30 we had a workshop on Bayesian Networks with Wayne Landis, Sakai Kuikka an me for risk and impact assessment to support decision making -

Current work interacting with stakeholders

Independent expert in the MUST-B working group at EFSA • Risk analysis on the signal crayfish for the Swedish Water Agency • President of the Nordic Chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis • Pollinatören - an action group to deal with honey bees in Sweden • Understanding and controlling litter by understanding thrown gum in urban areas (pilot)

Visit my blog Environmental Evidence Synthesis


2015 - 2017 President of the Nordic Chapter of Society for Risk Analysis 

2016 BECC action group: Evidence relying on simulation models and expert judgment.

2014 - 2018 Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence - Quality assurance in ecosystem service predictions (FORMAS project)

2015 STAKE Practices and barriers of stakeholder interaction – challenges for research projects

2014 Quality in knowledge - BECC action group

2012 - 2013 Towards decision making under uncertainty as part of PLANFISH.

2012 QSAR-integrated hazard and risk assessment, workpackage leader EU-project CADASTER.


2016 and 2017 Matthias Troffaes, Durham University, UK

2015 John-Paul Gosling at University of Leeds, UK. 

As a postdoc I made the following visits: 

2012-2014 Postdoc in economic-ecological modelling at Lund university Centre of Environmental and Climate research in SAPES research environment and EU-project Liberation.

2012-2013 Prof Hugh Possingham and Environmental Decision Group at University of Queensland, Australia (three months) 

2010-2012 Linneaus University, Sweden. in the EU-project CADASTER on the quantification of uncertainty in QSARs for chemical regulation under REACH.

I also got inspiration from here: 

CSIRO, Hobart, Keith Hayes PhD, October – February 2006-07

Feb 2013 Terry Walsh at Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA) at University of Melbourne, Australia.

Upcoming conferences

Past conferences

  • Bayes@Lund2017 - for the 4th time on April 19th and 20th Twitter #bayeslund17
  • The Annual meeting of the Swedish Professional Beekepers, Nyköping 2017
  • SRA, San Diego, USA, December 2016 - uncertainty according to EFSA & what is robustness to uncertainty
  • ESREL Glasgow, UK, 25-29 September 2016 - paper on small data and conflicting information
  • SRA Nordic, Göteborg, Sweden, 14-15 November 2016 - the new SRA glossary
  • First International Conference of the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence, Stockholm, Sweden, 25-27th August, 2016
  • SRA Europe Bath, UK, 20-22nd June, 2016  -  presentation on small data and statistics
  • Bayes@Lund2016 Feb 5th, Lund, Sweden. - what do we mean by evidence really?
  • SRA Nordic chapter conference  Lund 16 - 17 November  
  • ESREL 2015 7-10 September 2015 
  • WPMSIIP 8th Workshop on Principles and Methods of Statistical Inference with Interval Probability, Munich Sept 5th 2015.
  • SETAC Europe 25th Annual Meeting in Barcelona, Spain, 3 - 7 May 2015, Julia held an excellent presenation of what we call  Information Quality Impact Analysis 
  • The European Climate Change Adaptation Conference (ECCA) 2015 12-14 May. Poster “Who decides the treatment of knowledge-based uncertainty – decision makers, assessors or the epistemic situation?”  
  • SRA Europe Maastricht 15-17 June 2015 - The Nordic Chapter under SRA Europe is now up an running.

My education

I have a Master of Science in Mathematics with a major in Mathematical Statistics, Lund University 2003. My Master thesis "Analysis of forest field data with a spatial approach" was awarded Sparbanksstiftelsen Skåne Nova scholarship on 25 000 SEK 2004. I also have a Master of Science in Forestry with a major in Forest management, Swedish Agricultural and Forest University, 2000. My master thesis "Modelling spatial variability in low temperature at a landscape level" was awarded Arvid Lindman scholarship on 25 000 SEK in 2001.

2010 I defended my PhD thesis From data to decision - learning by probabilistic risk analysis of biological invasions. Prof Hugh Possingham was my opponent. 

April 28th 2017 I will have my docenture lecture at Lund university.

Visiting PhD students

Indrani Govendor, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa - Oct 2016 to April 2017

Current PhD students

Jan Blanke, soon two more

Former PhD students

Sarfraz Iqbal 2013 Environmental modelling and uncertainty (main supervisor during Feb 2012- Feb 2013)

For master students

I supervise projects for master students from e.g. Environmental, Computer or Information Sciences, Mathematical Statistics or Risk Management.


I am teaching risk analysis, decision theory, environmental risk analysis, mathematical statistics, experimental design and variance analysis, introductory course in R, and biological conservation.

Current courses

Graduate course in Risk, Uncertainty and Decision making, NAMV002, ClimBeco/LUCID, October-November 2016. (Responsible together with Åsa Knaggård and Daniel Slunge)

Environmental risk assessment on the course Foundations for Risk Assessment and Management. LTH, Lund October 2016. (Lecture)

Seventh school of the Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (SIPTA), Aug 29 - Sep 2, 2016, Durham, UK.

Bayesian Analysis and Decision Theory NAMV001 - summer school held August-September 2015. (Responsible)

Environmental risk analysis at Lund University MVEC12 (Lectures)

Applied Ecotoxicology LU (Lectures)



Retrieved from Lund University's publications database

me in Lundagård
E-mail: ullrika.sahlin [at]


Centre for Environmental and Climate Research (CEC)

+46 46 222 68 31

+46 73 827 44 32



Read more on the blog

Extreme events in the real world and in the mind

Last Friday April 28th I gave my docenture lecture for Environmental Science at Lund University. I talked about the importance of considerin…

Lundaloppet predictive challenge 2017

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The dawn of the new research group “UnEviL”

Uncertainty and Evidence Lab is the name of a new research group at Lund University. The group is led by Ullrika Sahlin at the Centre of Env…

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, CEC

Sölvegatan 37
223 62 Lund, Sweden

Visiting address
The Ecology building, Sölvegatan 37, Lund