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Ullrika Sahlin

My research is directed towards the practical implementation of decision making under uncertainty. I take inspiration from management of environmental systems given the current state of knowledge. 

Key interests

• Environmental decision making under uncertainty
• Philosophy of risk, uncertainty and quantitative modelling
• Ecological and economical risks and climate change
• Bayesian and Robust Bayesian predictive inference

Selected fields of application

• Risk and impact assessments in Ecological-Economic systems • Biodiversity and ecosystem services • Invasive species • Chemical regulation • System safety and reliability

Open position on Robust analysis

PhD-position in Environmental Science on "Robust analysis for evidence-based environmental decision making". 

The candidate will work with Robust (or generalized) Bayesian analysis as an approach to consider varying strengt in knowledge or severe uncertainty. Case-studies include evidence-based evaluation of greening measures in the agricultural policy (CAP)  and risk assessment of invasive alien species with partial or no information. '

More info

Note that the registration for the PhD course in Risk, uncertainty and decision making is open. Closes October 2nd!


The deadline to submit abstracts to the 2nd SRA Nordic Chapter meetning closes September 29th!


Visit my blog Environmental Evidence Synthesis

See my publications at Research gate


2016 BECC action group: Evidence relying on simulation models and expert judgment.

2014 - 2018 Quality in knowledge. Project leader of FORMAS project “Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence - Quality assurance in ecosystem service predictions”.

2015 STAKE Practices and barriers of stakeholder interaction – challenges for research projects

2012 - 2013 Towards decision making under uncertainty as part of PLANFISH.

2012 QSAR-integrated hazard and risk assessment, workpackage leader EU-project CADASTER.


2016 Matthias Troffaes, Durham University, UK

2015 John-Paul Gosling at University of Leeds, UK. 

As a postdoc I made the following visits: 

2012-2014 Postdoc in economic-ecological modelling at Lund university Centre of Environmental and Climate research in SAPES research environment and EU-project Liberation.

2012-2013 (three months) Prof Hugh Possingham and Environmental Decision Group at University of Queensland, Australia.

2010-2012 Linneaus University, Sweden. in the EU-project CADASTER on the quantification of uncertainty in QSARs for chemical regulation under REACH.

I also got inspiration from here: 

CSIRO, Hobart, Keith Hayes PhD, October – February 2006-07

Feb 2013 Terry Walsh at Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA) at University of Melbourne, Australia.

Upcoming conferences

  • ESREL Glasgow, UK, 25-29 September 2016 - paper on small data and conflicting information
  • SRA Nordic, Göteborg, Sweden, 14-15 November 2016
  • SRA, San Diego, USA, December 2016

Past conferences

  • First International Conference of the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence, Stockholm, Sweden, 25-27th August, 2016
  • SRA Europe Bath, UK, 20-22nd June, 2016  -  presentation on small data and statistics
  • Bayes@Lund2016 Feb 5th, Lund, Sweden. - what do we mean by evidence really?
  • SRA Nordic chapter conference  Lund 16 - 17 November  
  • ESREL 2015 7-10 September 2015 
  • WPMSIIP 8th Workshop on Principles and Methods of Statistical Inference with Interval Probability, Munich Sept 5th 2015.
  • SETAC Europe 25th Annual Meeting in Barcelona, Spain, 3 - 7 May 2015, Julia held an excellent presenation of what we call  Information Quality Impact Analysis 
  • The European Climate Change Adaptation Conference (ECCA) 2015 12-14 May. Poster “Who decides the treatment of knowledge-based uncertainty – decision makers, assessors or the epistemic situation?”  
  • SRA Europe Maastricht 15-17 June 2015 - The Nordic Chapter under SRA Europe is now up an running.

My education

I have a Master of Science in Mathematics with a major in Mathematical Statistics, Lund University 2003. Master thesis Analysis of forest field data with a spatial approach was awarded Sparbanksstiftelsen Skåne Nova scholarship on 25 000 SEK 2004. I also have a Master of Science in Forestry with a major in Forest management, Swedish Agricultural and Forest University, 2000. The master thesis Modelling spatial variability in low temperature at a landscape level was awarded Arvid Lindman scholarship on 25 000 SEK in 2001.

Visiting PhD students

Indrani Govendor, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa

Current PhD students

Jan Blanke

Former PhD students

Sarfraz Iqbal 2013 Environmental modelling and uncertainty (main supervisor during Feb 2012- Feb 2013)

For master students

I supervise projects for master students from e.g. Environmental, Computer or Information Sciences, Mathematical Statistics or Risk Management.

Previous master students

Anna Larsson, Julia Grönholdt Palm, Jens Worning, Yf Jiang, Marit March Strömberg, Nils Lubbe


I have been teaching in courses in environmental risk analysis, mathematical statistics, experimental design and variance analysis, introductory course in R, and biological conservation.

Current teaching

Graduate course in Risk, Uncertainty and Decision making, ClimBeco/LUCID, October-November 2016.

I will give a lecture on Environmental risk assessment on the course Foundations for Risk Assessment and Management. LTH, Lund October 2016. 

Seventh school of the Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (SIPTA), Aug 29 - Sep 2, 2016, Durham, UK.

Bayesian Analysis and Decision Theory NAMV001 - summer school held August-September 2015

Environmental risk analysis at Lund University MVEC12


(fetched from Lund University's publications database)


me in Lundagård
E-mail: ullrika [dot] sahlin [at] cec [dot] lu [dot] se


Centre for Environmental and Climate Research (CEC)

+46 46 222 68 31

+46 73 827 44 32



Read more on the blog

The ESREL risk image competition over

2016-10-03 17:34
This year the ESREL conference in Glasgow decided to do a risk image competition. What a wonderful idea. Time to go creative. The task was t…

What is Robust analysis?

2016-06-30 21:48
Does this question appeals to you? Do you want to apply Bayesian modelling for the purpose to quantify uncertainty and support decision maki…

Graduate course in Risk, Uncertainty and Decision Making

2016-06-15 00:27
Registration is now closed for the PhD course in risk, uncertainty and decision making. We make a number of decisions every day. These decis…

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, CEC

Sölvegatan 37
223 62 Lund, Sweden

Visiting address
The Ecology building, Sölvegatan 37, Lund