Menu

Javascript is not activated in your browser. This website needs javascript activated to work properly.
You are here

What type of uncertainty is robustness referring to in Information Gap Decision Theory?

Author:
  • U. Sahlin
Publishing year: 2015
Language: English
Pages: 2797-2804
Publication/Series: Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems - Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015
Document type: Conference paper
Publisher: CRC Press/Balkema

Abstract english

In Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) a system is said to be robust to uncertainty if specified goals are achieved with satisfaction despite large info-gaps. Under this theory an info-gap expresses the disparity between what is known and unknown in structures for which uncertainty is judged as severe. We discuss how robustness in IGDT can be merged with a perspective on risk which allows for descriptions and characterisations of risk on the basis of broad uncertainty assessments. Robustness in IGDT is found to be related to a combination of a measure of uncertainty in consequences of a decision and a judgement of strength in knowledge underlying the quantification of this uncertainty. Thus an info-gap is a way to quantify a type of second order uncertainty. We suggest that it would be possible to view the “level of uncertainty” α in the info-gap model as the decision maker’s “level of sensitivity to strength in knowledge”. Robustness (Formula presented.) is then describing how sensitive the assessor can be to strength in knowledge and still be confident that this is an acceptable decision.

Keywords

  • Social Psychology

Other

25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015
Published
  • ISBN: 9781138028791
me in Lundagård
E-mail: ullrika.sahlin [at] cec.lu.se

Researcher

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research (CEC)

+46 46 222 68 31

+46 73 827 44 32

E-D340

50

Read more on the blog

Bayes@Lund2017 19-12 April

2017-03-23
The program for Bayes@Lund2017 is now ready Don’t forget to sign up – and be fast to not miss out! We start in room MA7, Maths b…

Workshop on Bayesian Networks for risk assessment and decision making

2017-02-08
You most welcome to attend a workshop on Bayesian Networks in risk assessment and decision making in Lund March 28 and 29th, 2017. This work…

Studentprojekt: Tuggummin som en indikator för nedskräpning i urbana miljöer

2017-02-06
Studenter sökes för ett projekt under våren 2017 Detta projekt går ut på att ta reda på hur förekomst av tuggummin förhåller sig till föreko…

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, CEC

Sölvegatan 37
223 62 Lund, Sweden

Visiting address
The Ecology building, Sölvegatan 37, Lund