Mark Brady
Policy officer
The Interdependence between Rainfall and Temperature: Copula Analyses
Author
Summary, in English
Rainfall and temperature are important climatic inputs for agricultural production, especially in the context of climate change. However, accurate analysis and simulation of the joint distribution of rainfall and temperature are difficult due to possible interdependence between them. As one possible approach to this problem, five families of copula models are employed to model the interdependence between rainfall and temperature. Scania is a leading agricultural province in Sweden and is affected by a maritime climate. Historical climatic data for Scania is used to demonstrate the modeling process. Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of sample data are also considered to eliminate the possibility of observation error. The results indicate that for Scania there are negative correlations between rainfall and temperature for the months from April to July and September. The student copula is found to be most suitable to model the bivariate distribution of rainfall and temperature based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Using the student copula, we simulate temperature and rainfall simultaneously. The resulting models can be integrated with research on agricultural production and planning to study the effects of changing climate on crop yields.
Department/s
- Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)
- AgriFood Economics Centre, Lund University School of Economics and Management
- BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
Publishing year
2012
Language
English
Publication/Series
Scientific World Journal
Full text
Document type
Journal article
Publisher
Hindawi Limited
Topic
- Agricultural Science, Forestry and Fisheries
- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Status
Published
ISBN/ISSN/Other
- ISSN: 2356-6140