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Foto Zhengyao Lu

Zhengyao Lu

Researcher

Foto Zhengyao Lu

Increased frequency of multi-year El Niño–Southern Oscillation events across the Holocene

Author

  • Zhengyao Lu
  • Anna Schultze
  • Matthieu Carré
  • Chris Brierley
  • Peter O. Hopcroft
  • Debo Zhao
  • Minjie Zheng
  • Pascale Braconnot
  • Qiuzhen Yin
  • Johann H. Jungclaus
  • Xiaoxu Shi
  • Haijun Yang
  • Qiong Zhang
Show all

Summary, in English

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, whether in warm or cold phases, that persist for two or more consecutive years (multi-year), are relatively rare. Compared with single-year events, they create cumulative impacts and are linked to extended periods of extreme weather worldwide. Here we combine central Pacific fossil coral oxygen isotope reconstructions with a multimodel ensemble of transient Holocene global climate simulations to investigate the multi-year ENSO evolution during the Holocene (beginning ~11,700 years ago), when the global climate was relatively stable and driven mainly by seasonal insolation. We find that, over the past ~7,000 years, in proxies the ratio of multi-year to single-year ENSO events increased by a factor of 5, associated with a longer ENSO period (from 3.5 to 4.1 years). This change is verified qualitatively by a subset of model simulations with a more realistic representation of ENSO periodicity. More frequent multi-year ENSO events and prolonged ENSO periods are being caused by a shallower thermocline and stronger upper-ocean stratification in the Tropical Eastern Pacific in the present day. The sensitivity of the ENSO duration to orbital forcing signals the urgency of minimizing other anthropogenic influence that may accelerate this long-term trend towards more persistent ENSO damages.

Department/s

  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • Department of Geology

Publishing year

2025-04

Language

English

Pages

337-343

Publication/Series

Nature Geoscience

Volume

18

Issue

4

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Nature Publishing Group

Topic

  • Climate Science

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1752-0894