Ullrika Sahlin
Universitetslektor
Bayesian Network Applications for Sustainable Holistic Water Resources Management : Modeling Opportunities for South Africa
Författare
Summary, in English
Anthropogenic transformation of land globally is threatening water resources in terms of quality and availability. Managing water resources to ensure sustainable utilization is important for a semiarid country such as South Africa. Bayesian networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that have been applied globally to a range of water resources management studies; however, there has been very limited application of BNs to similar studies in South Africa. This article explores the benefits and challenges of BN application in the context of water resources management, specifically in relation to South Africa. A brief overview describes BNs, followed by details of some of the possible opportunities for BNs to benefit water resources management. These include the ability to use quantitative and qualitative information, data, and expert knowledge. BN models can be integrated into geographic information systems and predict impact of ecosystem services and sustainability indicators. With additional data and information, BNs can be updated, allowing for integration into an adaptive management process. Challenges in the application of BNs include oversimplification of complex systems, constraints of BNs with categorical nodes for continuous variables, unclear use of expert knowledge, and treatment of uncertainty. BNs have tremendous potential to guide decision making by providing a holistic approach to water resources management.
Avdelning/ar
- MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
- Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC)
Publiceringsår
2022
Språk
Engelska
Sidor
1346-1364
Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie
Risk Analysis
Volym
42
Issue
6
Dokumenttyp
Artikel i tidskrift
Förlag
John Wiley & Sons Inc.
Ämne
- Probability Theory and Statistics
- Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Nyckelord
- Bayesian networks
- South Africa
- water resources
Status
Published
ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt
- ISSN: 0272-4332