Paul Miller
Universitetslektor
A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands
Författare
Summary, in English
Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21°C (range, 0.09–0.49°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.
Avdelning/ar
- BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
- Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap
- MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
- Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC)
- eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration
Publiceringsår
2022-01-21
Språk
Engelska
Sidor
86-97
Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie
One Earth
Volym
5
Issue
1
Dokumenttyp
Artikel i tidskrift
Förlag
Cell Press
Ämne
- Climate Research
- Physical Geography
Nyckelord
- carbon dioxide
- carbon-cycle feedback
- land surface models
- long-term climate change
- methane
- peatland
- permafrost
Status
Published
ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt
- ISSN: 2590-3330