Dmytro Perepolkin
Doktorand
Hybrid elicitation and quantile-parametrized likelihood
Författare
Summary, in English
This paper extends the application of quantile-based Bayesian inference to probability distributions defined in terms of quantiles of observable quantities. Quantile-parameterized distributions are characterized by high shape flexibility and parameter interpretability, making them useful for eliciting information about observables. To encode uncertainty in the quantiles elicited from experts, we propose a Bayesian model based on the metalog distribution and a variant of the Dirichlet prior. We discuss the resulting hybrid expert elicitation protocol, which aims to characterize uncertainty in parameters by asking questions about observable quantities. We also compare and contrast this approach with parametric and predictive elicitation methods.
Avdelning/ar
- Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC)
- BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
- MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
Publiceringsår
2023-10-04
Språk
Engelska
Dokumenttyp
Preprint
Förlag
OSF
Ämne
- Probability Theory and Statistics
Status
Published