Deniz Koca

This paper focuses on future scenarios of demand and supply of grain in China. Economic development has been growing at a steady pace for decades and there are no signs of a decline in the near future. Projections of population trends show that the population will continue to expand until 2050, when a levelling- off is predicted. The growth of both population and economy drives industrialisation and urbanisation where area for settlement and infrastructure is demanded. Agricultural land is converted into urban area with high water consumption and pollution problems. People with a higher income diversify the diet, a diet that needs a larger area for production. The fundamental basis for self-subsistence in food production - agricultural land and clean water - is diminishing rapidly and may soon necessitate an extensive grain import. This study concludes that even if conservation measures are carried out China may face an extensive need for import of grain products.