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Portrait image of Richard Walters. Photo.

Richard Walters

Researcher

Portrait image of Richard Walters. Photo.

Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree

Author

  • Oliver J Wilson
  • Richard J Walters
  • Francis E Mayle
  • Débora V Lingner
  • Alexander C Vibrans

Summary, in English

Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th-century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st-century climate change constitutes a new-but so far unevaluated-threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high-resolution topography and fine-scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso- and microclimate scales. We show that climate-only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th-century destruction is evident-more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation-and 21st-century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.

Department/s

  • Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)

Publishing year

2019-12

Language

English

Pages

4339-4351

Publication/Series

Global Change Biology

Volume

25

Issue

12

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Wiley-Blackwell

Topic

  • Ecology
  • Climate Research

Keywords

  • Biodiversity
  • Brazil
  • Climate Change
  • Conservation of Natural Resources
  • Forests
  • Trees

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1354-1013