Farming in marginal areas with its resulting mosaic of forests, afforestation, and heterogeneous farmland maintains biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe. Such areas are though heavily supported by Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments. It is unclear how CAP reform after 2020, in conjunction with the rise of the bio-based economy, will affect (1) the distribution of farming, forestry and intermediate land-use forms in marginal areas, (2) the extent and location of biodiversity and ecosystem services impacts, and (3) what alternative policy might efficiently ensure their preservation. This project addresses these questions in a spatially-explicit manner for three contrasting marginal farming areas in Sweden. Predictions for different policy scenarios obtained with existing agricultural agent-based models will be translated to GIS landscape models, and combined with biodiversity and ecosystem service models parametrized based on upscaling empirical data (biodiversity surveys and respondent interviews) purposefully collected in the project, supplemented with existing data. An interdisciplinary multi-methods approach covering multiple sectoral drivers, conservation-relevant species groups (birds, plants, and flowervisiting insects) and ecosystem services (cultural and production) as well as tight collaboration with policy-makers and land managers will generate significant decision-support for European, national and regional policy and administration in changing times.
Centrum för miljö- och klimatforskning (CEC)
Ekologihuset, Sölvegatan 37, Lund
yann [dot] clough [at] cec [dot] lu [dot] se