Paul Miller
Senior lecturer
Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming
Author
Summary, in English
The Arctic land area has warmed by > 1 A degrees C in the last 30 years and there is evidence that this has led to increased productivity and stature of tundra vegetation and reduced albedo, effecting a positive (amplifying) feedback to climate warming. We applied an individual-based dynamic vegetation model over the Arctic forced by observed climate and atmospheric CO2 for 1980-2006. Averaged over the study area, the model simulated increases in primary production and leaf area index, and an increasing representation of shrubs and trees in vegetation. The main underlying mechanism was a warming-driven increase in growing season length, enhancing the production of shrubs and trees to the detriment of shaded ground-level vegetation. The simulated vegetation changes were estimated to correspond to a 1.75 % decline in snow-season albedo. Implications for modelling future climate impacts on Arctic ecosystems and for the incorporation of biogeophysical feedback mechanisms in Arctic system models are discussed.
Department/s
- Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
- MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
- BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
Publishing year
2012
Language
English
Pages
281-291
Publication/Series
Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment
Volume
41
Document type
Journal article
Publisher
Springer
Topic
- Physical Geography
Keywords
- Arctic tundra vegetation
- Climate change
- Shrub expansion
- Ecosystem
- modelling
- LPJ-GUESS
- Biogeophysical feedbacks
Status
Published
ISBN/ISSN/Other
- ISSN: 0044-7447