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Paul Miller. Photo.

Paul Miller

Senior lecturer

Paul Miller. Photo.

Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change and Forest Management on Swedish Forest Ecosystems Using the Dynamic Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS

Author

  • John Bergkvist
  • Fredrik Lagergren
  • Md. Rafikul Islam
  • David Wårlind
  • Paul Miller
  • Maj-Lena Finnander Linderson
  • Mats Lindeskog
  • Anna Maria Jönsson

Summary, in English

Boreal and temperate forests are undergoing structural, compositional and functional changes in response to increasing temperatures, changes in precipitation, and rising CO2, but the extent of the changes in forests will also depend on current and future forest management. This study utilized the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS enabled with forest management (version 4.1.2, rev11016) to simulate changes in forest ecosystem functioning and supply of ecosystem services in Sweden. We compared three alternative forest policy scenarios: Business As Usual, with no change in the proportion of forest types within landscapes; Adaptation and Resistance, with an increased area of mixed stands; and EU-Policy, with a focus on conservation and reduced management intensity. LPJ-GUESS was forced with climate data derived from an ensemble of three earth system models to study long-term implications of a low (SSP1-2.6), a high (SSP3-7.0), and a very high (SSP5-8.5) emissions scenario. Increases in net primary production varied between 4% and 8% in SSP1-2.6, 21%–25% in SSP3-7.0 and 25%–29% in SSP5-8.5 across all three forest policy scenarios, when comparing 2081–2100 to 2001–2020. Increased net primary production was mediated by a higher soil nitrogen availability and increased water use efficiency in the higher emission scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Soil carbon storage showed small but significant decreases in SSP3-7.0 and in SSP5-8.5. Our results highlight differences in the predisposition to storm damage among forest policy scenarios, which were most pronounced in southern Sweden, with increases of 61%–76% in Business-As-Usual, 4%–11% in Adaptation and Resistance, and decreases of 7%–12% in EU-Policy when comparing 2081–2100 to 2001–2020.

Department/s

  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
  • Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)
  • eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration
  • LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions
  • LTH Profile Area: Aerosols

Publishing year

2024-12-29

Language

English

Publication/Series

Earth's Future

Volume

13

Issue

1

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

John Wiley & Sons Inc.

Topic

  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Sciences

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 2328-4277