Paul Miller. Photo.

Paul Miller

Senior lecturer

Paul Miller. Photo.

Self-Amplifying Feedbacks Accelerate Greening and Warming of the Arctic

Author

  • Wenxin Zhang
  • Paul Miller
  • Christer Jansson
  • Patrik Samuelsson
  • Jiafu Mao
  • Benjamin Smith

Summary, in English

Increased greening, higher vegetation productivity, and shrubification have been observed in Arctic tundra in response to recent warming. Such changes have affected the near‐surface climate through opposing biogeophysical feedbacks (BF) associated with changes to albedo and evapotranspiration. However, the likely spatiotemporal variations of BF to future climate change and the consequences for Arctic vegetation and ecology have not been robustly quantified. We apply a regional Earth system model (RCA‐GUESS) interactively coupling atmospheric dynamics to land vegetation response in three potential 21st‐century radiative forcing simulations for the Arctic. We find that BF, dominated by albedo‐mediated warming in early spring and evapotranspiration‐mediated cooling in summer, have the potential to amplify or modulate local warming and enhance summer precipitation over land. The magnitude of these effects depends on radiative forcing and subsequent ecosystem responses. Thus, it is important to account for BF when assessing future Arctic climate change and its ecosystem impacts.

Department/s

  • BECC - Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration
  • Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  • MERGE - ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system

Publishing year

2018-07-20

Language

English

Pages

7102-7111

Publication/Series

Geophysical Research Letters

Volume

45

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Topic

  • Climate Research

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1944-8007