Progress in regional downscaling of west African precipitation

Summary, in English

We review the recent progress in dynamical and statistical downscaling approaches for west African precipitation and perform a regional climate model (RCM) intercomparison using the novel multi-model RCM data set from the Ensembles-based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) and African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) projects. Present RCMs have distinct systematic errors in terms of west African precipitation varying in amplitude and pattern across models. This is also reflected in a relatively large spread in projected future precipitation trends. Altogether, the ENSEMBLES RCMs indicate a prevailing drying tendency in sub-Saharan Africa. Statistical post-processing of simulated precipitation is a promising tool to reduce systematic model errors before application in impact studies.

• Author: Heiko Paeth; Nicholas M.J. Hall; Miguel Angel Gaertner; Marta Dominque Alonso; Sounmaila Moumouni; Jan Polcher; Paolo M. Ruti; Andreas H. Fink; Marielle Gosset; Thierry Lebel; Amadou T. Gaye; David P. Rowell; Wilfran Moufouma-Okia; Daniela Jacob; Burkhardt Rockel; Filippo Giorgi; Markku Rummukainen
• Department/s: Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC); MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system
• Publishing year: 2011
• Language: English
• Pages: 75-82
• Publication/Series: Atmospheric Science Letters
• Volume: 12
• Issue: 1
• Links: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.306
• Document type: Journal article
• Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
• Topic: Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
• Keywords: climate change; West Africa; model intercomparison; dynamical downscaling; statistical downscaling
• Status: Published
• ISBN/ISSN/Other: ISSN: 1530-261X