I have a BSc in Mathematics and an MSc in Applied Mathematics (Probability and Statistics), from Havana University, Cuba. During my Bachelor and Master studies, I applied hierarchical Bayesian models to estimate the relative risk of transmissible and non-transmissible diseases.
I am interested on using robust Bayesian models to conduct risk assessment related to conservation of species. I am also interested on applying imprecise probability to quantify uncertainty arising from environmental problems.
I started my PhD in June 2017, and I am currently enrolled in the UnEvil (Uncertainty Evidence Lab) research group, associated with the Science and proven experience research group and part of the COMPUTE research school.
Previously, I worked as a clinical trial statistician, supporting medical decision-making, in a Clinical Trial Department.
About my project
My PhD project, Robust Analysis for evidence-based environmental decision making, focuses on the treatment of uncertainty in environmental management decisions. Specifically, I am interested on applying generalized Bayesian analysis, which can be seen as a combination of sensitivity analysis and robust analysis to quantify uncertainty using imprecise probabilities. My project involves decision theory, Bayesian analysis and risk assessment with applications on evidence based-decision making. My project will use case studies on ecological intensification in agricultural landscapes and management of invasive species to provide examples on how Robust Analysis can be used in evidence-based decision-making and environmental risk assessment.
Generalized Bayesian analysis, risk assessment, environmental decision-making, decision making under uncertainty
Ullrika Sahlin (Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Faculty of Science, Lund University)
Henrik Smith (Department of Biology and Center for Environmental and Climate Research, Faculty of Science, Lund University)
Nils-Eric Sahlin (Department of Medical Ethics, Faculty of Medicine, Lund University)
Johan Lindström (Centre of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Engineering, Mathematical Statistics, Faculty of Science, Lund University)
Matthias Troffaes (Department of Mathematics, Durham University, United Kingdom, UK)