Robust analysis of uncertainty in scientific assessments
Date: May 26th
Time: 10:00 – 12:00
Open seminar on zoom (link to Zoom will be provided to registered participants short before the seminar)
Midterm opponent is Jukka Ranta University of Helsinki and Finnish Food Authority
CEC representative is Pål Axel Ohlsson, Department of Biology
Main supervisor is Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research
Knowledge is always limited, and therefore is honest to communicate uncertainty when presenting scientific conclusions in scientific assessments. In her PhD project, Ivette Raices Cruz is studying the possibility to use robust Bayesian analysis to treat uncertainty in scientific assessments. Both Bayesian and Robust Bayesian analysis are useful to quantity uncertainty when making inference from data and experts. Ivette work is a contribution to evidence synthesis and quantitative risk assessment, by developing the methodology for Robust Bayesian analysis, and applying and comparing different ways to quantify uncertainty on existing assessment.
The seminar is structured as follows:
- A 20 minute presentation by the PhD student
- Discussion between the mid-term opponent and the PhD student (led by the opponent) for 20-40 minutes.
- Questions from the audience