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Deniz Koca. Photo.

Deniz Koca


Deniz Koca. Photo.

The WORLD Model Development and The Integrated Assessment of the Global Natural Resources Supply


  • Harald Sverdrup
  • Deniz Koca

Summary, in English

WORLD6 model was developed and applied to simulate potential future supply and scarcity of a num- ber of natural resources within the system dynamics modelling workpackage of the SimRess project. The main objective of this report is to outline the overall structure of the WORLD6 model and provide a detailed description of the “resources” module implemented in the model.
In the WORLD6 model, resources are clustered under METALS, MATERIALS and ENERGY sub-mod- ules. The metals sub-module includes copper, zinc, lead, technology metals (silver, antimony, bismuth, tellurium, selenium, cadmium, germanium, indium, gallium), manganese, chromium, nickel, iron, stain- less steel, speciality metals (molybdenum, rhenium, niobium, tantalum, cobalt, wolfram, platinum group metals (platinum, palladium, rhodium), super alloys) and light metals (aluminium, lithium). The materials sub-module includes sand, gravel and stone, where as the energy sub-module includes fos- sile fuels more specifically hydrocarbons.
For each of the modelled resources, model simulation results were presented and an associated inte- grated assessment was provided under separate sections of this report. In general, the WORLD6 model simulation results suggests that most of the supply peaks for metals, materials and fossil fuels will occure around the middle of this century. This will lead to some of the most serious industrial, po- litical and social challenges of our times and will require careful preparation and research in order not to disrupt the functioning of society. Substantially better degree of recycling offers a long term sustain- able and secure supply of most resources.


  • Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)

Publishing year




Document type





  • Other Environmental Engineering