The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here:

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

Deniz Koca. Photo.

Deniz Koca


Deniz Koca. Photo.

Future Demand and Supply of Food in China - A modeling attempt


  • Christer Kalen
  • Hördur Haraldsson
  • Deniz Koca

Summary, in English

This paper focuses on future scenarios of demand and supply of grain in China. Economic development has been growing at a steady pace for decades and there are no signs of a decline in the near future. Projections of population trends show that the population will continue to expand until 2050, when a levelling- off is predicted. The growth of both population and economy drives industrialisation and urbanisation where area for settlement and infrastructure is demanded. Agricultural land is converted into urban area with high water consumption and pollution problems. People with a higher income diversify the diet, a diet that needs a larger area for production. The fundamental basis for self-subsistence in food production - agricultural land and clean water - is diminishing rapidly and may soon necessitate an extensive grain import. This study concludes that even if conservation measures are carried out China may face an extensive need for import of grain products.


  • Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)

Publishing year







Proceeding of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Document type

Conference paper


System Dynamics Society


  • Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Conference name

The 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Conference date

2002-07-28 - 2002-08-01

Conference place

Palermo, Italy