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Ullrika Sahlin

My research is directed towards the management of environmental systems given the current state of knowledge. Special interest is the treatment of uncertainty in scientific communication, which includes building computational templates for solving environmental problems related to decision making, and addressing questions related to decision makers perception of information and which impact uncertainty may have on the systems to be managed.

Key interests

• Environmental decision making under uncertainty
• Philosophy of risk, uncertainty and environmental modelling
• Ecological risks and climate change
• Bayesian and predictive inference

Selected fields of application

• Fishery management
• Biodiversity and ecosystem services
• Invasive species
• Chemical regulation



Our modelling group is looking for a Bayesian analysts to work with us on "Multiple ecosystem service modelling in agricultural landscapes" at the CEC. Experience in R, Bugs (or similar) and Matlab are necessary. Interested to join? - contact me.




2014 - 2018 Quality in knowledge. Project leader of FORMAS project “Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence - Quality assurance in ecosystem service predictions”.

2012 - 2013 Towards decision making under uncertainty as part of PLANFISH.

2012 QSAR-integrated hazard and risk assessment, workpackage leader EU-project CADASTER.

Postdoctoral visits

2012-2014 Postdoc in economic-ecological modelling at Lund university Centre of Environmental and Climate research in SAPES research environment and EU-project Liberation.

2012-2013 (three months) Prof Hugh Possingham and Environmental Decision Group at University of Queensland, Australia.

2010-2012 Linneaus University, Sweden. in the EU-project CADASTER on the quantification of uncertainty in QSARs for chemical regulation under REACH.

Other visits

CSIRO, Hobart, Keith Hayes PhD, October – February 2006-07

Feb 2013 Terry Walsh at Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA) at University of Melbourne, Australia.

Upcoming conferences
ESREL 14-18 sept 2014, Wroclaw Poland.

I have a Master of Science in Mathematics with a major in Mathematical Statistics, Lund University 2003. Master thesis Analysis of forest field data with a spatial approach was awarded Sparbanksstiftelsen Skåne Nova scholarship on 25 000 SEK 2004. I also have a Master of Science in Forestry with a major in Forest management, Swedish Agricultural and Forest University, 2000. The master thesis Modelling spatial variability in low temperature at a landscape level was awarded Arvid Lindman scholarship on 25 000 SEK in 2001.

Current work

Former PhD students

Sarfraz Iqbal 2013 Environmental modelling and uncertainty (main supervisor during Feb 2012- Feb 2013)

For researchers

Join our efforts to learn more about modelling and inference for decision making!

More info about the workshop

For master students

I supervise projects for master students from e.g. Environmental, Computer or Information Sciences, Mathematical Statistics or Risk Management.
Current I am interested in projects related to:

• The use non-testing information in chemical regulation and the treatment of uncertainty

• Emulators to understand and validate complex models in for environmental decision making

• Markov modeling of cod stable state

• Perception of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments

You are welcome to suggest other projects!


Marit March Strömberg (at Linneaus university)

Nils Lubbe (at Linneaus university)


I have been teaching in courses in environmental risk analysis, mathematical statistics, experimental design and variance analysis, introductory course in R, and biological conservation.

Current teaching

Environmental risk analysis at Lund University MVEC12


Last modified 17 Feb 2014

Ullrika Sahlin
Contact information

Ullrika Sahlin



    Mobile:  +46 738 27 44 32
Phone:  +46 46 222 68 31




Current projects



Previous projects



Lund University, Box 117, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden. Tel: +46 (0)46 222 00 00